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Advisor

gold parabola

Parabolic upmoves on charts don't happen often but there's one now on the gold chart.

 

It's hitting the near vertical part which means that it may not be all that near to a top in price but more than likely is near the top in time.

 

Trade over 1308 might indicate a long term low in place, BTW, by my reckoning. As I remain a dollar bull on the larger degree I'm not expecting that but the market will decide.

 

But anyway, hopefully you're long and if you are don't sell it until it falls out of the parabola. In no case do you short it until then but you sell out of longs.

 

After it falls out you'll ususally get a retest to go short- sometimes even to marginal new highs but outside the parabola.

 

BTW, sentiment and spec long commitments are approaching a level tht ususally indicates a high within a week or so.

 

 

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6 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: gold parabola

Yea maybe one thing is for sure someone knows something about it China has been loading up on gold for quite some time now leading the world time will tell
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Honored Advisor

Re: gold parabola

I don`t know if "this time"  is it or it`s just one of the many teasers but the pressure cooker lid will blow off big time on the price of gold.  The paper trade is something crazy like 300 times more than the physical, the "JP Morgans" lease gold to short it, the gold reserves a divined by wetting a held finger into the wind and divining that the mine contains a certain amount.

 

Once a "flight to safety" is sought, that price could go parabolic and never look back.  If gold ever breaks through the pasture fence, the Dollar won`t look so good...or one day the Dollar isn`t the cleanest dirty shirt" any longer, that horse is gonna run.

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Advisor

Re: gold parabola

Never fall in love with something that can't love you back.

 

Just another trading vehicle.

 

Just off the top of my head I could see a long term low in place for gold but with a steep second wave correction coming whenever this impulsive leg runs out of gas.

 

I'd guess that probably means new lows for silver which is where I'd place short bets when the time comes. Gold benefits from flight to quality, silver is half precious metal, half industrial commodity.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: gold parabola

I wouldn`t invest over 5% in gold, unless it went under $1,000, then I think it`d be safe to go maybe 10%.  If it went to $5,000 or something, one would have to ask if you`d have more pressing problems to worry about in that environment.  With silver, the Hunts drove it to $50 in 1980ish and gold was $800, a 1:16 ratio.  Now last bull a couple yrs ago, silver hit $50 and gold $1900 or about 1:38 ratio, with that commodity bull silver should`ve been way over $100...but it didn`t, with all the computers that they say the sliver can`t be recycled it just poof disapears, silver never got traction even in that crazy bullish environment. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: gold parabola

877500,000 Oz of silver production a year ago should be up in '15.. room for a little disappearance. Well supplied market. 

 

Mexico is number one producer, USA is number 9.

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Honored Advisor

Re: gold parabola

27,400 TONS 

 

That is almost 1200 semi loads

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