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Action might be seen as significant in a broader context, maybe not, but it is interesting nevertheless.


Toying with a very major support area and I'll let the market decide but it don't look good to me.


Gold has religious attachment to some folks. Personally I'm agnostic on the question of manipulation.  Equally possible, in my view, is that sometimes markets get high and they get tired


Anyway, shifting gears a bit, the CRB is also on the verge of some bad trade and would have done it already without the strength in energies- which might be waning right here and now.


I'll admit that I may be looking for things that I think confirm my bias but I'm seeing this as a hint that the tailwind of money flows into commodities will end sometime and perhaps turn into a headwind.  If you think about it, all those hudreds of $billions that flooded into commodity investments are just sitting there, getting old and stale with the only real return being whatever can be made from periodic rotation within the index.


That is sort of my premise. That being the case the smarter way to go about it is that rather than looking for confirming facts, ask myself what it would take for me to change that notion?


I'm thinking out loud here.  Probably I'd like to see positive trade in the CRB, a clear reversal in the gold'silver ration, not sure what else. I'll think on that and get back to you.


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4 Replies

Re: gold

When the fundamentals change the market will change.

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Re: gold

Sure, the problem is that you probably won't know the fundamentals have changed until after the market has priced them in.


  Actually not even sure of that as a market can price itself at very different levels with the same apparent fundamentals based on expexctaions, liquidity flows, trader positioning etc.


You bring up an interesting topic.  Markets are like air flowing over a wing and everybody has to create their own set of mental devices that they use to conceptualize them. I generally see TA off of charts as a more objective way of conceptualizing the market but knowing what you can about fundamentals sure doesn't hurt.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: gold



that Si/GC spread ---- short term (last week or so) has become stronger. 


agree, they are both on major wkly support or pivot areas.....moving forward, some of the fundamentals will be comfort level of owning/balancing equities w/ hard....crb incl.

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Holy #$#% Batman

Gold down another $50, silver $1.50.  Crude also lower, nothing of that magnitude, but flirting with important 90 area.


Not much spillover to other markets at the moment.

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