handling basis

[craignd]

Since hard red spring wheat reached $8 locally in north central ND a lot of farmers must have sold because the basis has gone from 25 cents to 45 cents I think you would call this under. Anyway the cash price has fallen because of it. It looks to me like the local elevator is determined to keep basis at this level regardless of weather scares that may come in the wheat market worldwide. My question is whether there is a way to lock in a futures price but not the basis with the hope basis will improve.

[c-x-1]

If you aim to lock in forward sales, you sell X # of futures contracts based on how much production you want to lock in. 1 contract = 5000 bu. like you said you limit your flat price profit potential, but not basis if you believe it will stay strong or get stronger.

downside, is if you sell too much forward production and a weather rally develops you miss on the amount you sold futures. always a risk...worst case, one could "lock in" a significant %, have a big weather rally and basis weakens.

much to consider. hope this helps.