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nutlug
Veteran Contributor

hard red winter wheat market

Any ideas where the bottom is on this thing ?  Harvest hasn't even started in Kansas, we might need rice combines to cut it if it doesn't stop raining, and the price drops everyday!

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: hard red winter wheat market

I would guess the bottom is already in...if not...4.40 chicago is not far away and a perfect harvest might make that possible. I just think that much like corn/beans last fall, all the bad news is in the price before harvest starts. Movement will be slow to non-existant at harvest, so maybe it can bounce, or at least bounce on the market realizing that the corn/bean crop is less than the perfect that they are trading right now. jmo

 

The clear target for KC wheat would be 4.60. 40 cents away...pretty close in the big scheme. But it has to get there by June 30th at the latest, and more likely June 10th. .

 

It is always interesting to watch both the farmer and the speculator react when it starts raining. The farmer knows it is great up to a point. After a point, like wheat country right now, especially in wheat, disease and harvest issues can greatly reduce the crop size and quality. For the speculator, after hearing the farmer complain about drought for years, when it starts raining, they naturally have to expect that rain makes grain, because the farmer has said for years that a lack of rain reduced his yields. It is like a sit-com.

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