Yes, I am surprised at the intensity of events. But the events have been developing for some time and are still changing. Too many lose sight of daily progressions of events, convince themselves of some stereotypical view of the nature of a market. Such as 'the world is awash in wheat'. That I may have written in very large script and posted on my wall. It will go right beside 'the market is always right', and 'volatility is your friend'.
Some define risk in terms of when the sky might fall. By definition it requires playing futures to be responsible in managing risk. The risks of the recommended strategies themselves are often not discussed as risks/costs - which is simply denial. The number of advisers blown out of the water this time is simply staggering, as it was the last time. Waiting and watching IS a strategy that can be as activist as any other strategy.
The best armed producer/marketer is the best informed on what is going on in his markets - globally. Having an advisor isn't enough, and sometmes too much. The prediction of production and price is no substitute for keeping track of the trends yourself in the very basic measurements of acres, production, inventories - here and abroad, and for this year and the previous years. You can always find someone to help with the technical stuff. Knowing the policies of the governments is valuable too, because most countries governments are very involved, especially countries that import larger quantities. I also recognize that some (like me) are more interested in this stuff than others.
Having a 'plan' is not worth much if you don't really understand what is going on. Marketing is not just math.
