Re: hey bucky
I sold some beans to Muscatine for river close at 9.59. Yes, below the cost of ISU production but probably not too far off my own, since I am cheap.
My assessment is that this is a harvest delay relay and prices will go back down when we get to the fields again. This is also the opinion of my borker and my grain buyer. Of course, we could all be wrong.
I have not lifted my hedges, so I'm about 100% hedged, depending on my final yield. Yields so far have been about avaerage to a bit better than average, but no monster yields for me.
There is a load to deliver in November that I sold last March at 11.79. Hmm, why didn't I sell more?
Re: Selling Beans
Jim, are your hedges for 14 crop only or do you have some 15 on too?
Still wrestling with how to approach 15. I know I will have lots of bean acres, just dont know how many beans or what SA crop will be.
Beans are volitile as heck right now, and there are probably more bearish things than bullish what ifs for the 15 crop. that said we have been known to raise 60 bushel beans and 0 bushel beans. and with soya still pretty tight, IMO a year that nets me 0 bushel beans is probably a year NA gets tight on bushels again. thus its hard to get to hedged out too far and catch that double whammy
Re: Selling Beans
I am about fully hedged for 14 beans and about 60% hedged for 15 beans with sales from 10.05 down to 9.33. Of course, I'd like ot have the last one back. I have several hedgeson at a little over 9.50 and some more at 9.75-9.80, so I'm behind on many of my hedges now. This is pretty early in the year for me to be so beared up, usually I am hedging in spring.
If 15 bean prices go higher I'll continue to sell into them until I'm 100% covered.
Why so big a position so early? I believe there is enough credence to the big 2105 bean plans that I fear if I don't protect my production I'll take a blood bath next fall. I'm at about a 50-50 rotation and would rather keep that and hedge on the board rather than change rotations to hedge.
Well, I could be all wrong.
I'm pretty well covered on 14 corn and will probably roll it. I have almost nothing on 15 corn.
14 bean hedges I'll look at as they come due - I may lift them and I may roll them. Right now, it would look lift lift but I have to do something on the puts next week so it will be time to get off the pot. The futures I can let ride for a bit.
Yes, I'm betting on a double bottom or whatever they call it in the beans, that is, that the recent low is not the only low and that prices will go down starting maybe even in the next day or two as the rains get all in the market, the production numbers get digested and the weather forecast generates some pricing action.
These are interesting times.
Re: Selling Beans
I'm still actually bearish on this years beans. Even though I give Bucky a bunch of grief, I do think that we still have more down to go. I don't think this is the market bottom. Pushes in the market probably need to be sold. This is probably a bit early for a dead cat rally, but given how much the market has sold off, it wouldn't surprise me if we are starting to form something of a bottom here. I don't play futures anymore - would I sell this if I were? Probably not. At this point, we're far from a sure game, and at the point where the tail end people come into the market and get their money taken away. No thanks...I'll stay on the sidelines...or, on the bench, as the case may be.