12-03-2015 08:13 AM
Re: highs probably won't come out for a long time
That's how it played in the previous 3 cycles. Yes, things can change and I noted some of the factors that could change it and there are others you wouldn't see coming.
But that's my best guess as to how it goes.
You can't get entirely wedded to cycles but the 30 year cycle has been too regular to dismiss offhand. It ain't magic, what it says is that investment in commodity production (land, mines, oil wells etc.) is long term and capital intensive. There are long periods where the previous investment is sufficient to meet demand, or excessive. The free market works but only in the very long term as production growth slows and demand finally catches up.
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