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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

hmmm.....

use 94M and last years final nat avg..............look at 155-156.............remember we have been above 155 only twice, 2004 and 2009.............

 

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18 Replies
NEIA Cyclone
Contributor

Re: hmmm.....

I would like to know where all the demad will come from in your chart.  Ethanol is maxed at 5 billion, if livestock somehow comes back to 5 billion and exports come back to 1.8 bil, my sheet still says 1.2 bil new corn carryout.  But currently I have a 1.6 bil carryout with 155 bu and 847 on 146 bu.  I would bet a steak dinner that we are over a billion bushels going into the crop year 2013.  Do you care to take the other side MT?

 

Edited to say crop year 13

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: hmmm.....

I agree thats a fairly strong number, and not mine.........that said we were over 13B use a year ago..........ethanol could be 5B or 5.2B next year.........exports could come in 1.9B next year............it only takes a few small bumps to get there...............

 

as for your wager, nope, too many variables goes into play with that number..............

 

 

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: hmmm.....

blend wall caps ethanol demand, even more so with slashed demand due to high gas prices.  exports arent going to come back soon enough.  brazil is ramping up production of suger ethanol and it can now be imported into the US duty free.

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: hmmm.....

Thats interesting because at the end of the year they only use harvested acres
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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: hmmm.....

???????...........read the print, its assuming 92%..........last year we were at 90.8% which will lower those numbers more if it is similar............IMO the larger the planted acres the lower the ratio.............a 1% change for the worse, and it will be for the worse as we almost never get over 92%.............is almost a 1M reduction in acres............thus 94M is actually more like 93M............just like last year when 92M was actually more like 91M............

 

 

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: hmmm.....

But the matrix doesnt go up to 180 bu national average.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: hmmm.....

164 or 14 challenge........you spew a lot of pooh and don't back a bit of it up.........put your money where you a77 is...........bring it lush.......
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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: hmmm.....

So the way I look at the numbers MT it seems extremely unlikely that corn carryout after the 2012 crop will be UNDER 1.5 Bil. In that scenario it is indeed likely that corn has real trouble staying above $4.50.

 

I'd use a 95 mil corn acreage number and I will not be surprised if USDA says 97 next week. I disagree on your % harvested. It is purely tied to weather and not where the corn is planted. It could easily be 90.5 or it could easily be 92.5.

 

Just as a producer, the market is telling you that it wants to go lower. Since we are producers, carrying price risk is a real risk that the market will take away very cheaply. We will stay 100% hedged and just see what happens. Make the market prove you are correct is all.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: hmmm.....

Of course, I could be wrong and am willing to live with the out-sized profits that these price levels create.

 

Not sure why Buck even attempts to point out the other side to you, obviously a waste of time.

 

Maybe you market like Missou plays basketball?  :-)  Sorry but as a Purdue fan we do the same thing every year, always 51 seconds short.

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