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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

hmmmmm

Lots of big numbers and yields thrown around............funny how talk is cheap..........94M corn and increased wheat acres means 72-73M soya acres.........just like last year when most thought I was nuts...........well whatever.............so what's the deal, I only had three brave souls take my 164 or 14 challenge...........yet I see post of 168 and all this jazz............what's the deal, were the stakes (no pun intended) too high or too low.........o well.......last comment, 168 and 5 corn tells me that low 5 new crop is cheap if you believe a 13.5B crop is top end.......and not buying acres............well better get going, takes longer to find that acorn when you are a blind squirrel.......
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14 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: hmmmmm

MT, How do those total acre projections shake out for you?

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4wd
Senior Contributor

Re: hmmmmm

15o bu/a is probably in reason with all the co on co and crp coming out.

94 million acres @150bu/a we are looking at 14.1 billion bushels of corn. I think $5.25 new crop is cheap based on that number, especially with cattle numbers climbing, new car sales up, economy rising, and $4.00 gasoline. Those ethanol plants will be running 8 days a week to keep up with demand. Yeah, new crop at $5.25 is cheap.

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: hmmmmm

There's never been a year in history where every acre of corn gets harvested for grain production. 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: hmmmmm

94 million acres of corn planted nets about 86-87 million harvested.  Slight difference......87 @ 150 gets you 13 billion.   It still appears that we will have very good demand.  We will be using all of those bushels......somewhere.

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: hmmmmm

$4 gas will likely cut back on driving.  Ethanol is almost at the wall now.  How will less gas sold result in more ethanol brewed?

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idalivered
Advisor

Re: hmmmmm

Gored, I'm sticking with 91 million harvested and 154. gets me right at 14 million. the whole guess is a crap shoot anyway. Missouri tiger, how do you like your steak prepared???

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Redpower410280
Frequent Contributor

Re: hmmmmm

Are you thinking were going to plant 99 million acres to get that many harvested acres. I think your yield could be close still a little higher than what I think it will end up. I'll say 151 and 86.5 harvested.
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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: hmmmmm

Here's my dumb math.  I believe 95 million + acres will be planted with roughly 88.4 being harvested.  For my yield, I'm putting it somewhere around 158.5 to 159 giving us right at 14 billion.  Right now, I'm trying to decide which will shock me more:  planting anything less than 94.5 million acres or having a national average yield at 160 or higher.  I'm probably going to go with the yield being 160 or higher.  It's not that I don't think we can have favorable weather this year, but we're going to be pulling so many acres from lower producing areas. 

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Doug N
Veteran Contributor

Gored

I understand in your area corn will be king, but in many parts of the country if corn continues to fall and beans slow creep up or atleast hold steady, then 95 million acres of corn may be a stretch.  Also, saw a chart last night that with the smaller SA crop and current S&D that world bean stocks could drop by 33% to 50% by next year at this time.  If that is slowly worked into the equation this year it could be interesting.  NC corn here is headed below $5 Cash today. Soybeans are headed close to $12 NC cash.  That is getting close to a 2.4 ratio.  I think there is a lot of guys dusting off their calculators after the last couple of days and rethinking what they will plant this year. 

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