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08-13-2018 09:20 AM
so on Tuesday i read that the crop ratings dropped for the month and were probably on a slide into harvest. So then 3 days later the yields are increased across the board for corn and soybeans... some things just don't make sense to me...
08-13-2018 02:24 PM
The USDA yield projections are based on 1 August data. The crop ratings are based on more recent data.
The university of Illinois webinar explicitly stated that USDA did not use crop condition ratings in the WASDE. The webinar further stated that the 1 August yield data was based on a combination of producer surveys and selected field samples by USDA bean counters.
Illinois has had several papers recently that talk about the correlation, if any, between crop ratings and yields.
It is certainly reasonable to note that field conditions since 1 August have deteriorated in some areas and that information could be incorporated into one's marketing plan.
08-13-2018 02:28 PM
Price declines due to the "mountain of soybeans" are needed in order to minimize the perception that the Chinese tariffs are hurting our demand/prices, to show that our price declines are significantly due to good weather and excess supply. Unfortunately, once lost, markets seem to be much harder to regain, so this tariff impact is likely a multi-year event.
08-13-2018 05:54 PM
Thanks to usda crop conditions have been removed from the "maketing plan"
by the time "Auust 1st' crop conditions are considered by usda havest will be here and half a crop will deteriorate price for another 6 months. Then another prediction from usda for Brazil will be followed by trend line yield precdictions for US corn and beans 2019.................
It is price fixing plain and simple.............. always betting on an imaginary crop...........
There is no marketing plan that fits or fixes the futures trade..........it's gone.
08-13-2018 08:26 PM
"What was the plan when Dec futures were trading 4.25???" My excuse was it was the 20th of May and it was still raining and I hadn`t dropped a kernel in the ground But come to find out all the Jackalopes south of here were done and a forthcoming bumper crop on the way.
08-14-2018 03:13 AM
But ray that’s really not a plan— just reactions to cash sales opportunities.