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Honored Advisor

how much left?

2015 On-farm corn stocks

What percentage of your on-farm corn stocks are left unsold?
Percentages
53.4772182254 percent 15.8273381295 percent 11.5107913669 percent 9.59232613909 percent 9.59232613909 percent
53% 16% 12% 10% 9%
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Vote Legend
1) 0-25% 223
2) 26-50% 66
3) 51-75% 48
4) 76-100% 40
5) Doesn't apply to me 40
Total Votes: 417

Results current as of:
17-Jun-15 11:53 AM

7 Replies
Senior Reader

Re: how much left?77%

 
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Senior Advisor

Re: how much left?

So, over half the farmers have less than 25% of their on-farm corn left unsold.  I wonder how many of those with unsold corn will feed it out, and if so, how is that counted?  It may be unsold but it is not uncommitted.  I grant that is probably a small portion in this day and age.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda - I have less than a truckload left unsold and that will be spotted this or next week, but I should have sold it long ago.  I listened to too many gurus.  No one to blame but myself.

Sadly, I have not forward sold enough new crop at prices that I once thought were awful but now look pretty good.  I'm pretty well covered now but it's another case of hind sight is 20-20 and I left way too much money on the table.

The local buyer thinks there is still a lot of unsold corn in farmers' hands.  All these new bins that have been built in the last 10-15 years.  

Also, there seems to be some corn in marginal or even unsatisfactory condition in these bins, I'm told, so some farmers are going to feel pressed to sell rather than be stuck with a bin of bad corn.  Maybe now the big spring push is gettting over for most more corn will be moving.  Truckers tell me there are long lines at some of the processors.

Given all this, basis is not taking a dump as bad as it might if the buyers ever decide to really play hardball, which they may later this summer if we don't get a weather scare.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: how much left?

1.  Unsold doesn't mean that it is still on the farm.

 

2.  Still on the farm doesn't mean it is unsold.

 

3.  These numbers are a moving target, as corn is hauled out, sold, and fed every day.

 

4.   It should be old news that farmers still control a large amount of corn........just look at the USDA's last carryout projection. (That's for you Jim.) Smiley Wink If farmers did not control a large portion of corn yet, that would make the USDA numbers wrong. 

 

5. I can attest to a long line at a local processor......but then again, it's been raining for three weeks now and farmers can't do anything else but haul corn.

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Honored Advisor

Re: how much left?

Roaring...while obvious to most...your post hints at something far more important

that is being over-looked by many. The farmer gave up and threw in the towel

on old corn in JUNE....normally he would do that in July around, or slightly after,

pollination. That is why there are lines. There won't be any lines in late July

this year. The constant drum beat of depressing news, great weather (by Chicago

standards), early planting (which of course isn't true either but don't mess with

the storyline), lower prices, and now nothing else to do in June. Perfect storm

for a triggering grain movement.

 

Why even our friend Ray at Cargill is so busy buying grain he has no time to post. Man Wink

 

To make a multi-month low, everyone has to be convinced. It is certainly starting

to feel that way by most statistical standards. Only way the fall low is below $3.20

(last falls low) is if we grow more than 168 bu/acre, and while that is possible, the

perfect areas in MN and IA are going to have to stay perfect to make up for some

less than perfect areas.

 

Nice to see NE is starting to get in on the fun this morning. Won't need many pivots

running at this rate.

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Senior Contributor

Re: how much left?

The big question about those long lines would be if it is priced or priced later

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Senior Advisor

Re: how much left?

WAs taling to my buyer in eastern Iowa today and go tthis impression from them:  Remember, these are just sub jective opinions of one person.

Some corn damage being reported, but no more than most years.

There is a lot of corn in farmers hands.

Some farmers have been selling steadily, but in small amounts

Feeling is farmers don't need the money

No or lttle carry, so no incentive to hold - farmers are just being reluctant sellers.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: how much left?

I've got a feeling there's a direct correlation in that chart between the %'s and finances or lack there of. 

 

Choice #5 is interesting. To view the results you have to check a box. Is this just retired farmers, traders, or libertarians?

 

We are now half way through the reduced guarantee yield after the PP date. All the large farmers in this area all have at least 2000 acres each of beans unplanted.  I'm at 38 acres of PP. Radar west of us is ugly. Went out yesterday evening to look at the one's planted last Wed and didn't get very far with the 4x4 ranger atv, left ruts and almost got a long walk out of th a t deal.

 

Talked to a farmer fourty miles se of here this morning. Said he tried planting and spraying yesterday, got both stuck on sod. Has 450 acres to go. 

 

Deck chairs on the Titanic here in South Podunk Country are being rearranged.

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