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Veteran Advisor

i don't understand anymore

i see beans down 20..........depite good sales......and if the s&d looked at.....might need an adjustment due to the sales...but we go down

 

i see the last few days, the basis on all our commodities have gotten wider again........all this within 90 miles of us, it's went down......

 

the elevators have moved some grain, harvest is over, we have good use in corn, good soybean sales, wheat acres are down,

 

several are saying 30% or more down in acres.....and some talk of bare ground with wheat and cold temps, might present

 

problems........

 

so, we are doing everything "like we are supposed to".........yet now the "market", say's "no"......i would like to know, what

 

does the market consider bullish ???

 

i really don't understand it anymore.......i have people telling me this and that, then the opposite happens, they can give

 

me every reason why we go down, but can not explain what must happen to go up.

 

i know i have not been in a good mood as of late, but looking at "the market"......and all the "talking heads", and locals

 

that claim to be "market" people.......keep saying the same old.....and all they can say is sell sell sell.....

 

i am becomming worried anymore.......first the market is no longer a market.......im sorry but i've seen one too many

 

add's by cme group, telling how you can use commodities in your trading mix......also, every year we have more and

 

more trading volume.......so you can see, the "buyer and seller" idea n the market, is gone.......it's just the go-go crowd.

 

they used to be in the stock market, where, in all practical purposes, the stock price didn't have all that much of a

 

impact on the profit margins of a company.........so it didn't 'hurt" anyone so to speak except those who stood

 

on the train tracks as the train come down the track at full speed.

 

but now in the commodities, ag commodities in particular, it's a bit different.....the movement in the market impacts

 

people (read farmers and rural communities)....and the "markets" could care less......

 

i also fear, the new administration, despite being pushed over the top by rural areas of the nation, my be hurt.....

 

my fear.....trade deals......while it's true, we use alot of what we produce, export is important.....and some of the

 

talk i hear comming from washington is worrysome....

 

the latest worry is the pick for epa.......a person who has filed suit againt the use of ethanol and biofuels........

 

this could have a direct impact on our bottom line, if he gets what he was filing suit about, and now he can

 

do it with a stroke of a pen.....

 

i'm sorry folks....but one of the keys is small business in america.....small business is the backbone of america.....but appointing

 

someone who's only experience is "promotion", and "entertainment"....in nothing no less, "professional wrestling"...just how

 

out of touch to the important things can you get ?

 

watch a WWE "program".......then set back and think....just what could business things could i use from watching this ??

 

i guess there is a reason the cardiologist had me do a stress test this week.

 

but i don't think i needed the treadmill.

 

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15 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: i don't understand anymore

The US Dollar is strong - and probably going to get stronger. That in itself makes our products more expensive on the world scene. I see it continuing strong for the next year at least.

I think the ethanol mandate may very well go bye-bye, under the new administration that was promoted on here by, well, at least a few. Guess you had to elect the guy, to see what was under the covers....

Tick Tock....

Jen
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Veteran Advisor

Re: i don't understand anymore

Would be very surprised to see ethanol taken out.  Pence is from Indiana.  And we all know, IOWA matters and most of the GOP brass in Iowa jumped on the Trump train early..and to him loyalty matters. Now we have Branstad  24/7 selling ag products to China.

 

Read thru some farm articles from the 80's...it can get worse. Farming has always had cycles.

 

Did it rain in SA today?  Beans will trade that weather...like it is June/July in the US.

 

Corn should have trouble buying any 'extra' acres or on the fence acres.

 

Elceapo..breathe-hang in there man.  Look on the bright side. this frigid weather will make it fun for protesters. Most of us are pretty spoiled when it comes to everything we have...try living in Aleppo.

 

Jen, we have 20 trillion in debt, yep, that is a problem...right now it is just there are worse problems in other nations.  Those are numbers that are so big I can't even begin to know what it means or rap my head around how it affects things.

 

Merry Christmas.

Honored Advisor

Re: i don't understand anymore

And to add to jec's thoughts...... 20 trillion in debt and considered a strong economy in a world of bad ones....that is not good...

 

Talk of the dow going to 20K because of all the international $$ coming here to be invested in the next few years....because there are no other economies worth investing in.   

 

right or wrong, I don't think this next pres. is going to stop any economic activity domestically... He may not be able to handle a twitter account but I think he understands the  difference between the healthy ethanol industry and the 900 million lost in one cellulostic plant the Obama administration turned to scrap in sw ks....

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Veteran Advisor

Re: i don't understand anymore

SW  -  Hugoton plant    wasn't     in the  '' Lime  Light ''  such  as  Carrier of INDY -  location  , location  &  loacation  to  get  more  GOV  $$$$  candy  ---

 

Shell Oil  buy's  it for  $26 million  with  build  costs  at  $500 million  according  to  D T N -  K S C B  of  Liberal   -    $ 900m  explain ?? 

 

It is  encouraging  &  refreshing  to  see  a  company  with  B I L L I O N's  of  taxpayer  '''  $ub'$  ''' step  up  to  the  plate  ---

 

Seems there was also an   October   ribbon   cutting   with   Senator  Pat  &  Gov. Sam   if  memory serves me for the Stevens County gala ---     

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Veteran Advisor

Re: i don't understand anymore

A twenty cent move in beans is 2%, about the same as a 6 cent move in corn.  It's just background noise.

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Senior Contributor

Re: i don't understand anymore

But Jim 2% is big in the stock market and they make a big deal out of it!?


@JimMeade wrote:

A twenty cent move in beans is 2%, about the same as a 6 cent move in corn.  It's just background noise.


 

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Honored Advisor

Re: i don't understand anymore

http://www.kansas.com/news/business/article119902263.html

 

K289,  You are right I cannot find the article that said "as much as" 900 milion.....  400 million is the most often quoted guess as to the amount spent.  And I was thinking the sale brought about ten cents on the dollar of the estimate... It sold for 48.5 million..... so I misquoted the estimate....

 

My only issue here is not the cost to the taxpayer, which might have been only the initial 97million grant if the 132.4m loan was actually repaid, but the unreliability of the US Government in basically killing the possibility of success in this facility when politics becomes more important than honor.

The initial project granted through the congress during the Bush presidency was the grant and promised loan for a facility that would produce 70% grain ethanol and 30% cellulosic ethanol.  Giving it a proven technology to financially assist in the development of the cellulosic technology which had not been fully developed in large scale at that point.  As the cellulosic was proven and developed the plant was to phase to a higher % of cellulosic over a period of time.

Those were the terms of the project explained from the outset.

 

By the time for the distribution of the loan, and after construction had begun, a new administration decided to deny the loan if there was any grain ethanol involved.  The political "biogasses" had changed smell.  The demand to abengoa now was 100% cellulosic or you don't get the loan.  Abengoa, not wanting to admit the technology was not proven to have a chance of success, agreed to the change.  

No matter what you read this plant which opened in 2014 never produced anything above a test run.  And the disposal water/fluid was not allowed to be spread on the ground and was sent to oilfield disposal wells in Texas by truck.

It is one of the most glaring examples I have seen showing how insanely irrational the environmental movement can be when "popular political science" is believed solely because it sounds good.  Whether you want to go after bush for making that state of the union speach using the word cellulostic or Obama for torpedoing a plant that may have eventually unlocked the economic potential of the dream............ I don't care..... In both cases politics trumped wisdom, logic, and probably science.

 

Politicians across the board are now concerned about fake news.........ya reap what ya sow.

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Senior Contributor

Re: i don't understand anymore

now thats funny😜

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Senior Contributor

Re: i don't understand anymore

not sure how trump is picking his people but thats the way it goes! Im glad hes picking people that are good for ag but whether or not he listens to them or not thats anybody's guess! 

I agree that his rhetoric is disturbing at times.

His pick for commerce secretary i think is against the overtime pay for workers! i dont like that! just my opinion

 

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