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sw363535
Honored Advisor

information and opinion

Well I got my wish for a few weeks.  No government information ---------  I have always wanted to see a time when the market movement was the leading indicator of market trend. As a young guy I thought that is how it works ------- prices rise and we start looking for why.------------- The idea that farmers are helped by "information" sounds good, but the definition of "information" ------------------- is as big as the variety of stuff going into a landfill.

 

My opinion, based on my historic computer model----- probably doesn't count as information......... NO opinion should be considered information-------- but obviously, most opinions are based on something----- even if it is just our small perspective.  And the more perspectives we read the bigger and more valuable our mental "modeled" opinion becomes.

 

I got one thing out of it --------- It clearly defined which usda reports I missed and which ones I don't.  

 

Do I like dependancy on government  --------- NO.  There is real data we need from an independant source,  I wish usda could figure out what it is.

 

Do I think usda information is fact ------ NO.  They are clear in saying ----much is not fact based------ prediction, based on their history of "accurate" predictions, based on predictions etc etc.------------ But when you have surplusses, no one questions much.

 

I have become so fixated on the predictions and the fight by usda to defend them,  I have lost focus on the actual data reports that do come out.  

 

What did you learn from a few weeks weened off the government ?????  

 

How long would it take to adjust to know what it would be like without usda reports??

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: information and opinion

1) The traders (speculators) were lost 

 

2) just too bad it didn't happen two months sooner

 

On a different note all the "good" news the last few weeks only ended up in a down market.

 

Today's little doom and gloom posts ended in a nice little bounce Smiley Wink

 

 

Maybe the reports are a necessary evil.  There is a difference between reports and guesses about the future

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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: information and opinion

All I heard this summer was TRADE YOUR BACKYARD.........talk about opening their eyes.

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bkadds
Advisor

Re: information and opinion

In reality, I will question reports until the last bushel comes out of the pipeline. Until then all reports are just semi educated guesses. Anyone who thinks the government reports are anything but should remember all the doctored numbers put forth in the past. Latest example--unemployment reports prior to last election. I know the trade "has" to trade something, but how accurate have these reports, misforma's numbers among others been in the past. 300 million bushels of corn showing up here then disappearing, cannot get accurate pp acres timely in the computer age, new bushels being possibly counted in the old crop carryover are just a few areas where I am skeptical. I will say again that I believe that unless you have the need to buy or sell corn, end user or producer, you should not be able to trade corn. It would take a lot of the variability and large market swings out of the equation. Yes, we have made money the last few years and like most should have sold more this year, but the foot on the throat of the markets frequently gets overdone. Of course, the same can be said when the markets rise to exuberant heights. Flame away where you think I am wrong.
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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: information and opinion

When China buys we are feeding the world   -  when China cancels is called what ?

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: information and opinion

S-O-L

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: information and opinion

When China cancels it's called "swaying the market"    Because you know they'll be back.   It's hardly rocket science.

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hardwheat
Frequent Contributor

Re: information and opinion

question re reports probably dumb one but enlighten me please.

 

you have usda estimates then fc stone is it and informa and possibly other private forecasters in the wash up at years end are they all that far apart in yeild estimates?

 

i know its wheat but australian wheat crop is shrinking not alarmingly but will be possibly 5 to 8% smaller than inially thought

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: information and opinion

Not a dumb question at all.  

 

There are several private estimates produced in the US.  fcstone handles hedges for many of the Grain purchasing farmer Coops in the US.  Their estimates are based on surveys of their affiliate Coop storage facilities as well as their employees that work with individual areas of the country.  Informa is another and many of the companies that handle commodities futures contracts publish estimates as well.

US Department of Agriculture, a section of the US Government that administrative agricultural laws of all types also produces estimates of production and other reports such as export inspections and export shipments and many others on many types of ag products.

In grains,  there are a few reports that are based on known data, like exports, because they are reported to the government by exporting companies by law.  But The usda production reports are primarily estimates based on historic formula's with many different variables, like as price goes up planted acres increase.  There are many cause and effect variables considered.

Usda has much actual data.  Producers are required to report acres, production, planting dates, crop choices, etc.-- if they participate in subsidy programs or insurance programs( or if they want to be eligible for programs in the future).

Usda does not use that data to publish its reports.  Because of concerns for the use of private or personal information and because it is voluntary and not all production land chooses to participate in those programs, usda maintains the practice of publishing estimates of potential probability that are formula based.

No actual accounting is done.  The last monthly report for that crop year is published as the final estimate.  And over the years we compare final estimated acres, yields and production. ------------ Unfortunately the word estimated gets dropped out too often.

 

Once the crop is harvested and into the system, the private companies tend to stop predicting it.  USDA keeps changing their prediction well into the next year.  So the answer to your question is no, there is never a "wash up" at years end.  No one knows when USDA will stop adjusting their projections.

Also, worth mentioning, many of the private forcasters are not actually trying very hard to estimate the crop as much as they are trying to estimate what USDA is going to estimate------ to gain respect.

 

Thanks for the wheat information.  We have been hearing reports.  My partner contacts friends in Australia and they report that the crop is there , but has been hurt some.

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hardwheat
Frequent Contributor

Re: information and opinion

in australia id say 85% of all grain ends up in cnetralized grain handling facilities either up country or at port the rest is on farm of used domestically so we have a fair handle on actual tonnes here

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