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Veteran Advisor

is wheat the key ????

hello boys and girls....i hope you got your fill of turkey, dressing, mashed potatoes, stweet potatoes, cranberry salad and  pumpkin

pie with cool whip....

 

well looking over things tonight....nothing much on tv, and just trying to "coast" for a couple of days...

 

just how many times have we had it beat into our heads that the market is always right (didn't say it was correct)

 

looked at all commoditties, from wheat, to beans, corn, even oats !!!!

 

the only market that has a positive upwards movement going forward is wheat...yet we are just so down on wheat it's not

funny,  how we dont need to plant any wheat, remember how everyone was telling us not to plant wheat ?  but, as

i said, it's the only one going up, as we go forward....

 

beans....say 20 cent gain for a year, same with corn.....oats....same price for several years.

 

so, i fell for it, i didn't put out near as much wheat, but not thrilled with the outlook for beans, or in this area, milo rather than corn.

 

kind of hard for the two....the insurance rates for soybeans in this area is just nuts.....and milo....i have no real options for

the sugar cane apid...and really afford to spend upwards of $40 for spray and plane at the prices we are looking at.

 

but.....i'm looking at some of the data...i've been looking at the long range forecast....and for  just about every one of them,

they show above normal, and below, to at best "EC" for rainfall......to me that adds up to a less than steller year....

dare i say the word "drought" ?

 

i really dont have any answers at this time.

 

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2 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: is wheat the key ????

El cheapo, have you been hitting the eggnog a month early? I don't know what your looking at, wheats been going nowhere the last 6 mos and I don't see signs of that changing. Beans are where the action is, it seems to me. But I hope your right about wheat. I planted more this fall than I ever have
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Veteran Advisor

Re: is wheat the key ????

clay, here is what i base my comments on about wheat could be the key............(but we don't know what's behind the door that the key

unlocks)

 

kc hrw

dec16   4.10

july 17   4.52

dec  18  4.85

sept  18 5.20

 

corn

dec 16  3.49

jly    17  3.58

dec  17  3.86

sep  18   3.99

 

SOYBEANS

 

jan 17  10.44

jly   17  10.63

nov 17  10.25

sep  18  9.94

 

oats

 

mar 17  2.16

july  17   2.28

dec  17  2.24

sep   18  2.26

 

rice

jan 17  9.59

july 17  10.23

nov 17   10.30

 

note soybeans have a downward trend.

 

sorry kids......i don't see much of a bright spot for at least 2 more years............

 

think i'll write a book, that could become popular.......1000 recipies for bologna or fried corn meal and how to make your own tufu.

 

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