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Senior Contributor
Posts: 196
Registered: ‎09-09-2010
0

its not the first grain rodeo!

but it may be the most damaging to agriculture if something doesnt happen to curb americas production. according to the last report we have too much of everything and the numbers are a little disconcerting. There is 3/4 crop still hanging around with no buyers in sight.
This happened in the 70’s which led to the PIK program and set aside acres helped curb production. Farmers liked it but big grain companies,seed,
fertilizer and chemical companies didnt.
CRP took 40 million acres too.
We had a great market with china the last fee years but they have levied tarriffs against US ag in retaliation to our tariffs on them!
we are now planting or will start planting soon. Do we hope something will happen with China? What happens if there is no deal?
The level playing field that we need to compete has been destroyed. Our dollar is at an all time high so crashing the price we get is suppose to work?? people or animals or ethanol production will only use so much production no matter how cheap a loaf of bread gets or a bushel of corn. Im not sure how we will deal with almost two years worth of crop this fall. where will it be stored! The deal in the news yesterday said china has until 2025 to bring purchases up to previous levels so what! Can farmers wsit that long? China has bought all they need from the rest of the world! I hope history doesnt repeat itself as far as agriculture goes because it took decades to regain market share that we lost in the 80’s and late 90’s
Honored Advisor
Posts: 17,966
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: its not the first grain rodeo!

We just have to hunker down and this to shall pass. Get your "no button" working when it comes to salesmen. The assessor sent of a cut in farm`s values, well that may or may not result in a small reduction in property tax, it is the canary starting to cough in the coalmine.   My biggest fear is farmland starts going down, that will wipe the smiles off the so far happy banker`s faces, that source of equity that we`ve tapped to get over the hump that is becoming a mountain.  When bankers start suggesting that you "sell that last quarter you bought" there could become a shortage of land buyers or buyers sitting on cash waiting for a bottom.  If you`re an unlucky one with a for sale sign on your quarter in that scenario, it will not be happy times.

 

It seems 3 years ago some gurus were saying "we`ve had a rare 3 years in a row of above tend yields, it`s doubtful we`ll get a 4th" well here we are blowing through 5 and 6 years above trend and gurus no longer "bet against the American farmer".  The thing is, it`s like flipping a coin, every time it`s a 50/50 and if you flip it long enough you`ll get "heads" 100 times in a row and Jim will even draw a "inside royal flush" if he play cards long enough  Smiley Happy

 

Each year is a blank slate and it seems to me the old "rain makes grain" axiom is basically right, because most of the nation can use extra rain that we get in this new precipitation paradigm (I thought global warming was supposed to be droughts?) .   The bad weather that would occasionally bail us out pricewise in the 80`s and 90`s doesn`t have as much impact now that everyone is pattern tiled and over-powered to the hilt, Aquamax seed gets you over the dry periods.  Crops can be put in, in terrible conditions and look crappy all summer and harvested in a one week window in the fall and the cocky grower will wiggle his elbows and say "Was my best crop ever!!!"....yeah, I`m getting sick of hearing that every fall.  

 

Supposedly theres just 4 areas in the world that can be farmed hard without consquences those places being Ukraine, part of Europe, part of South America and the US cornbelt.   This crazy everyday rain worldwide seems to expand and bailout the less than desirable farming areas.  And when there`s a nickel of wheat in a loaf of $2 bread, the rest of the damned world sure does scramble for that nickel. 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 2,903
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: its not the first grain rodeo!

How will we cope with all the gloom & doom?   Might as well call the auctioneer.  BTW, don't be the last one to have an auction.  Smiley Wink

Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,220
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
0

Re: its not the first grain rodeo!

Where are you getting your data?

3/4 of a crop hanging around with no buyers?

just simply not true....for any crop....grown anywhere in the world.

 

And that is before you get to the fact that NASS just said our livestock

is eating far less per animal than in the past during one of the toughest

winters in a long while....just ludicrous math on that one.

 

But yes, cost is higher than we like, and prices are lower, but at

least use the real numbers and keep them in perspective.

 

2 mil prevent plant acres of corn and an AVG yield, not trend, and run out

of corn late next august, just a different perspective.

 

Sure we could have another "Mary Poppins" growing season, but we

have not had it yet.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 434
Registered: ‎04-02-2012
0

Re: its not the first grain rodeo!

With all the ASF in China it does not look good for farming the next 10 years. Sounds like when it is all said and done there production could be down 50% that is 3 pig herds that we raise in the United States gone. Not gonna be good for demand even if they take the tariffs off😫
Senior Contributor
Posts: 196
Registered: ‎09-09-2010
0

Re: its not the first grain rodeo!

i agree....
Honored Advisor
Posts: 17,966
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: its not the first grain rodeo!

....the news is so skewed these days, only cherrypicked facts that fit the story`s narrative are reported.  Like what`s reported is how bean sales to China from the US are down (I believe) 30% and Brazil picked it up.   Okay, my question is: are Chinese imports of total soybeans also down?  True they imported more Brazilian beans, but were their overall bean imports down? 

 

Another question is: the Brazilian beans that went to China, which of their regular customers got skunked and had to source higher priced US beans?    What about US "Argentina beans" that made it into China and "unknown sources" destinations?   I mean if you only follow the bread trail in some of these "unbiased" sources you are lead to come to the corporate owners conclusion. 

Senior Contributor
Posts: 196
Registered: ‎09-09-2010
0

Re: its not the first grain rodeo!

its hard to know exactly. im not even sure how usda got their numbers on the pros plantings and stocks report! Im still not sure what i will plant but i do know the price i get is down because of it!
Senior Contributor
Posts: 196
Registered: ‎09-09-2010
0

Re: its not the first grain rodeo!

it was much better in january when there were no reports because of the shutdown! none of the traders were speculating cause nobody knew anything. much calmer then
Senior Contributor
Posts: 196
Registered: ‎09-09-2010
0

Re: its not the first grain rodeo!

usda “found” another 236 million bushels of corn! At 170 BPA that takes 1.4 million acres out of your 2 million prevent plant. Not sure where they found that. seems they find production when the fundamentals turn bullish!