Probably just looking at a slightly early seasonal low.
But if you think about it, if Unc pays you no matter what, what's the point of holding hedges?
Probably doesn't matter either way but particularly when hedges are currently profitable. Psychologically probably harder to do if you're underwater but at this point few of those, and small.
OK, taking my slow brain a bit to catch up but I guess it's no different than LDP days. The game isn't about risk management so much as it is to try to double dip- make money on hedges and da guvmint pays you too!
I need to think further about what this means strategically. Don't want to have a super-2003. In this case you can take a near guaranteed $100 per acre profit, try to stretch it to $200 and end up losing $200.
Seems a bit different, too, as in 2003 you probably needed a bit over market/LDP just to pay yourself a bit and cover depreciation. Now it would be more a mattre of having gotten used to making $200/acre and not being willing to take $100.