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Veteran Contributor
Posts: 181
Registered: ‎09-09-2010
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looks bleak

just as i had predicted. china is goung to other markets for beans and every other thing they need. they are putting up storage so this will never happen again. Their president will never come to us because in their eyes he would look weak and can u blame him? They are communists and play by their rules.China will invest in SA to make sure the beans get to port and they have the money to do This is the same scenario as the 1979 Russia embargo. Other countries stepped in to capture the market we left and that will happen with china too.
There are more diplomatic ways to address trade imbalances than calling them out in the media. We can kiss all the checkoff money and years of negotiation goodby because we will have to start over again with the rest of the world! talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
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Honored Advisor
Posts: 16,871
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: looks bleak

Being a lapdog for China didn`t stop them from becoming near self-sufficient in pork, did it?  If they can buy beans from S.A. cheaper than the US, it wouldn`t seem beneath them to be a "price shopper" in the world marketplace.  

 

What`s missing is, if they don`t sell us $400 Billion more crap than they buy from us, where are they going to get the money to buy from South America?    Just look at the Chinese Renmibi and the Shanghai market to see the pain, meanwhile the Dow minus Nike stock is in record territory.

 

China seeks world domination, the fact they aren`t playing nice shows why you probably don`t want them any stronger. 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,478
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: looks bleak

Can you imagine the ovehead costs for Brazil beans.... after you build lengthy railroads and concrete roads, and rebuild the Panama Canal. That was a big project. Walmart financed  Smiley Happy

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,758
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: looks bleak

Alrighty then........we will never export another bushel of soybeans.    You might as well call the auctioneer soon and end your misery.   You wouldn't want to be the last one to have a farm sale.   If you can't make go of it, you might want to rent your farm to someone who'll do a better job than you. 

BTW, if the previous 4 or 5 administrations would've worked on our export deficits, we wouldn't be where we are today.   

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 181
Registered: ‎09-09-2010
0

Re: looks bleak

you are absolutely right about not buying their stuff but seems like ag always takes a hit first! If we would quit buying any of their stuff maybe then they would come to the negotiating table but we havent done that yet.only little stuff so far!
Honored Advisor
Posts: 16,871
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: looks bleak

We Americans have too much stuff the way it is.  You know our garages are so damned full we can`t close the door!  Made in China unused treadmills, bicycles, video games and just plain crap.  And the hottest get rich quit scheme is to buy a couple acres outside of town and build storage sheds and rent them to people to store their crap. 

 

But tools and roller chain and televisions and jeans and non-Nike sneakers should slowly come back to America.  It can`t happen overnight, the shame of it is, in 2020 all this work in the right direction might be rolled back with the stroke of a pen.  The Chinese junk will continue rolling in, but Brazil will ship Chinese produced and owned beans.  We got the tiger by the tail, which is just as well, sooner or later they were coming for us regardless.

 

I don`t understand China`s plan really, the rest of the world is willing to produce food below the cost of production 90% of the time...so why not let `em?   China`s wheelhouse is copying and mass factory production of trinkets.  In a real world they should make their junk, sell it to us and in return buy what we produce grains, oil seeds and meats and we all win.  But apparently to them anything less than a $400 billion trade surplus with us is unacceptable.  If they just cut it by $100 billion, Trump would call that a win and it would be business as usual so I don`t see why they have to be jerks about it. 

 

 

BTW if China bought $100 billion more from us, that would be 8 billion bushel of beans at $12/bushel...just to put this all in perspective.   You gurus tell us what a purchase of 8 billion bushel would do to the bean market.   Or 2 billion bushel of beans and whatever combination of pork, beef and corn and wheat to make $100 billion.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,478
Registered: ‎07-18-2011

Re: looks bleak

[ Edited ]

BA...... What is one of the best investments of the last 20 years?........... Driving around it appears to be "Storage Unit Rentals" .

 

It isnt just the garage that is full.......

 

 

Right BA  ..... this is not trade.......It is a battle China is winning by 400 B per year.  

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 122
Registered: ‎07-04-2011
0

Re: looks bleak

As long as the dollar is the world's reserve currency dollars will be the primary export of this country.
Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,478
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: looks bleak

But dollars have no value without an exchange item when they leave.

 

and the trade imbalance makes us keep printing more...... which devalues them.

 

It is good to be the one who holds the reserve......... is that us or china?

 

 

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 122
Registered: ‎07-04-2011

Re: looks bleak

The reason there is a trade imbalance is because our trading partners are willing to accept our fiat currency in exchange for physical goods. We trade them paper that has value because everyone believes it has value for actual real physical goods. And they keep accepting it while we create more out of thin air.