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Veteran Advisor

market reality check

CHS - Winona
Delivery Start Delivery End Basis Month Futures Price Basis Cash Price Futures Change
#2 Corn
10/01/2014 10/31/2014 December 2014 331-4 -70 $2.615 -6-6
11/01/2014 11/30/2014 December 2014 331-4 -70 $2.615 -6-6
12/01/2014 12/31/2014 December 2014 331-4 -100 $2.315 -6-6
04/01/2015 04/30/2015 May 2015 353-0 -38 $3.15 -6-2
05/01/2015 05/31/2015 May 2015 353-0 -38 $3.15 -6-2
06/01/2015 06/30/2015 July 2015 360-0 -38 $3.22 -6-2
07/01/2015 07/31/2015 July 2015 360-0 -38 $3.22 -6-2
Soybean
09/22/2014 09/30/2014 November 2014 957-0 -29 $9.28 -14-4
10/01/2014 10/31/2014 November 2014 957-0 -48 $9.09 -14-4
11/01/2014 11/30/2014 November 2014 957-0 -40 $9.17 -14-4
04/01/2015 04/30/2015 May 2015 979-4 -42 $9.375 -14-6
05/01/2015 05/31/2015 May 2015 979-4 -42 $9.375 -14-6
06/01/2015 06/30/2015 July 2015 985-4 -41 $9.445 -15-0
07/01/2015 07/31/2015 July 2015 985-4 -41 $9.445 -15-0
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9 Replies
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Veteran Advisor

Will we see sub $2 corn bids?

I have to be honest and say that I never dreamed we would flirt with $2 corn offers. Granted this is a river bid, and they don't want corn at the time of the $2.31 bid, but even so.....

 

Its getting ugly.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Will we see sub $2 corn bids?

I don't like this article.  It is painful to read.  But it is also likely the cold hard truth.....

 

http://www.insidefutures.com/article/1297425/Wait%20for%20Corn%20and%20Soybeans%20to%20Rally.html

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Will we see sub $2 corn bids?

I can`t help but think us farmers are being asked to use our equity to be the sacrifical lamb to keep up the facade of "deflation".  Think about it, we are asked to buy inputs for the same price that they were when corn was $7. Now cash new crop has a "2" in front of it and we are expected to ...I supose go to the bank and "just bite the bullet...inputs will be cheaper next year"...oh really?  how do we know that?

 

When are the seed companies and fertilizer companies and chemical companies going to "share the pain"?   If a black swan occurs and corn goes back to $7, inputs won`t go down.  If farmers bite the bullet in the 2015 crop, there`s no guarantee there won`t be another bullet to bite for 2016 if prices don`t improve.

 

Was $6, $7 corn really on that precarious of a perch?  A year ago $7 cash corn now $3 and falling like a rock...is this what it really took...a huggggggge crop! (one I don`t see looking out this window) and prices get knocked into less than half?

 

My gut says there`s something fishy.  i would imagine this few months of lesson learning has everybody "taught" like a whip on a donkey.  As soon as corn can be sold anywhere near $4, there will be alot of sellers willing to go 3 years out.   But if they can, they might be smart, what do I know.  Smiley Happy

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Will we see sub $2 corn bids?

I read the article, and saw that cash corn bids for MInot ND are as low as $1.97....unbelievable.

 

 

And now its the endusers...you would think they would load up every storage receptacle they can at these prices, but its human nature to think it will still go lower.

 

and that is why when you get a chance to squeeze back, use both hands and make as much as you can.

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Advisor

Re: market reality check

BA Deere
The money flow is on the short side and its working. When the last drop of blood spilt this thing will snap back.
Soybeans will be going out of the lakes like hot cakes.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Will we see sub $2 corn bids?

Gulke said something about some in the Dakotas might store 2,3 yrs of corn it`s so cheap there.  one would think they`ll go back to wheat, something cheaper to grow and store.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Will we see sub $2 corn bids?

BA, I have already made the decision NOT to buy high priced inputs for the coming crop, UNLESS corn makes a major league rally before planting.

 

THe coop sales people tell me, you are going to regret not buying...things are going to be higher....I am not buying what they are selling.

 

Maybe they have bought in at higher prices....not my fault. I didn't put a buy order in.

 

Markets are ruthless, and if no one buys, they stuff will get sold for a lower price eventually.

 

I am not going to burn up any of  my equity by chasing high priced inputs.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: market reality check

Yes Cat, you`d think if China couldn`t get enough $13 beans..now when beans are $9, that $13 would be fresh in their memory.

 

But that Yellan and her "strong dollar" and any day now we`ll see a resurgence of books with "Dow 36,000" in the title.

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Highlighted
Advisor

Re: market reality check

Yep top is near in the Dow. Unless you own albidia
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