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market structure

A little surprised that fund longs continue to defend their position at the 200 dma.


There is an old crop tightness issue and low prospect of early harvest supplies, but I still see the odds of the market forcing liquidation of that position as high. And SX is already at that level even if SU holds a premium.


As I said a few weeks ago when somebody started touting the big fund short position in wheat as a reason to buy, that will inevitably come out sometime too.


But I tend to think that odds favor the bean long coming out before wheat shorts cry uncle.

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