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Senior Contributor

marketing june 2013

Looks lie a year where unless there is a serious HIT/DRY problem, we will be looking at decent ES/use ratios for the 1st time in a few years. To be 0 sold seems very risky. What is wrong with a scaled approach. have X% sold, sell X on any hear worry, X more if the heat realizes and look to have a decent avg by yr end.

 

'11 '12, 8$ corn 15$ beans is not a new norm, we had back to back poor Wx, a rarity.

 

Southern hemisphere is speeding expansion, the rusukt of a couold of years of high prices.

 

Wheat has been in a bear mkt for 2.5 years. 

 

No there yet but pay attention to carry. Cry overtime can add up to more than nominal proce chamges.

There are pro specs that earn carry (not without risk) because a producer can't or won't earn it.

 

COM index funds? I think those days are over. commodities are no capital assets, period.

Mnay had to learn that lesson. Many producers benefited form the artificial prices of that era. 

 

Themes ideas othero views> opposing is welcome.

Pritch

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4 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: marketing june 2013

Pritch,

 

I take it you do not think the funds will be back to push a weather rally  -------- or a post wheat harvest rally.---------- ???

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Advisor

Re: marketing june 2013

It's been easy to sell wheat. I am looking at more forward contracting for 2014. Found a guy who will treat and clean seed for cheap, and I can get germ/ seeds per lb.

Sell some soy for sure... I am thinking maybe a small fwd on 2014 at 12.5.

Corn prices should be higher... So I'm gonna wait... Got some at 5.80 anyways last fall. 4.60 or 4.90 locally... Depending where you go!!
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Veteran Advisor

Re: marketing june 2013

sometimes we have to zoom out in timeframe........is this one of those times??? M. Nature knows.........might be difficult to "call" weather odds with the volatility being experienced.

srw in clear uptrend since Jun 2010 - but, bangin' on the lower uptrend line.

hrw making a big triangle since then - BUT, has been unable to test lower uptrend line. difficult for me to see any down trend in these  2 mkts.

Therefore, re: wheat, the hrw is getting strong to srw since last falls highs. i.e. hrw/srw + 31 cents

 

i agree with scaling: whether a producer for mktg purposes or a spec for scaling into or out of a swing or trend-trade position.

 

c-x-1

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Senior Contributor

Re: marketing june 2013

I am all about scaling and taking some risk off the table. Have a decent amount of fall beans sold for 13+ cash at the co-op. But, given that 

 

A.  Most corn end users can make a nice profit at $ 6.50

B.  This crop ain't cummin no where near 14bb bushels and

C.  I've already got a few fall bushels sold for 6+

 

Why in the heck would I want to sell more fall delivery now for less than 5 bucks???  

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