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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: marketing plan these days...

 

Gio it looks that way to me.  We are too cheap on most everything.  And beans and wheat are both bad...

The downward risk should be limited...

 

But I wonder about two things

1 Will China buy at harvest lows or have they just been trying to get rid of our debt...(currency)

2 Will the anti science crowd discover that they have been barking up the wrong tree with gmo corn and go after gmo beans which are a basic ingredient in most of the grocery store.  Soybean oil is used in thousands of products. Beans are raised on ground sprayed with glyphosate for weed control.  And are 95+% GMO.   The politics of scare has gone from funny to bazaar....  Our sheep are creaping ever closer to the edge of that cliff.

RISk ---- that is the risk that will take beans to the $6 range or lower......

And usda through the FDA keeps enabling the possibilities...

 

Triming costs is just a natural phase farmers need to go through.  If we got $40 a bushel for beans we would spend $39 to raise the next crop.  

COP is just business.  You gotta know it live with your marketing decisions... sleep at night..

We can always trim it...

Farmers don't make money on production very often.  In my lifetime I have seen only one 2009-2012.  farm programs fill some gaps but average wages are all farmers ever get.  Farmers make their net worth on asset appreciation.  Land values going up, minerals, irrigation, improving the land etc...

Scare for farmers now is since 1996 we have been dismantling the safety net for producers that gets them through bad years.... no protection at all now,  crop insurance is an aspirin to cure cancer... 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: marketing plan these days...

Unfortunately, any marketng plan these days needs to include selling before any USDA report.  It's obvious to me that we need less of these reports.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: marketing plan these days...

Did you guys all forget about the June 30th report? It was bullish. To claim, or act upon the presumption, that all the reports are bearish is bad for ones financial health.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: marketing plan these days...

Time, it was bullish but not as bullish as it should`ve been. If one think of "cheap food policy" as the king on the chessboard, USDA sacrificed a rook to save the king.  Question is when the combines roll in earnest and fed perhaps announces another QE, will that put the king in "checkmate"?

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: marketing plan these days...

Time.......1 report out of 10 is a very low percentage.   

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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: marketing plan these days...

 

I wish the farmers wrote the report.

 

It would always be bullish and we would all make a lot of money.  Smiley Happy 

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: marketing plan these days...

Well I'm starting to get confused anymore. It used to be you would get what appeared to be bullish news
The market will go up, but end the day down
Bearish news....every day reports
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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: marketing plan these days...

Markets go down on bullish news because the trade had factored in higher expectations than were reported.  

 

No CCC here.

 

This might be a good year to sell the carry and get rid of any corn on the early side rather than hold it till well into 2016.

 

It might also be a good year to slide a few bean acres to corn, but if everyone does that one should hedge the corn early rather than later.

 

2016 is likely to be a harder year to market than 2015.

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: marketing plan these days...

Gio
I believe you may be what we used to call a position
Trader. You wait for the market to come to you
Rather than Chase it.
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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: marketing plan these days...

ElCheapo,

 

Longterm trading is where the money is.  I don't have a crystal ball and risking my money every single day does not work. So yes, I pick a price level and wait.  

 

 

 

 

But when I trade I do not trade one or two lots Smiley Happy

 

 

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