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Honored Advisor

mike florez on usfr

He was saying like many of us believe, that. usda gave "negative reports" to stretch a tight supply, now they will be more positive because they don't want to break producers.

 

Also on the beans, China is expected to cancel bean orders, if there's a surprise and they dont , old crop will get very tight and explosive.

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13 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: mike florez on usfr

BA,

imo the surprise is already outta the bag for beans...there will be some part and parcel cancellations, nothing en masse. China learned their lesson with depending on shipments from SA last year.

 

when US already has the balance sheet pegged with commitments, some cancel will have to occur for rationing purposes.

 

2/3 already shipped. might end up being more economical, logistically, as well, for US to import - then ship to China?

 

bottom line - US customers have the most faith when product is shipped from here, not SA....WHAT is the price for that???

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Honored Advisor

Re: mike florez on usfr

Hey CX, possibly the US would have buy Brazilian beans to fill their contracts?  What could happen is US soy users would import from S.A. and that would free up more to fill Chinese contracts, cause i don`t think we renge on our contracts like our buyers sometimes do. 

 

 For better or worse my soybean meal needs are covered, i didn`t want to get in a bidding war with the Chinese in the middle of a July possible drought  Smiley Happy   

 

 

Is it dry in Texas? That`s the way it looked on the weather maps.

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Senior Advisor

Re: mike florez on usfr

Ask a Canadian! Smiley Frustrated

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Advisor

Re: mike florez on usfr

BA-very dry here. We have had a little snow, but not enough to do much good. Starting out like the last several years.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: mike florez on usfr

We are ok H2O - wise currently...not like it was in Jan 2011 that was more widespread in SE Texas.

 

ScreenShot086.gif

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Veteran Advisor

Re: mike florez on usfr

Then, by August 2011 ALL of Tx was in bad shape - Houston had received only about 17% average precip. for the preceeding 15 months. Walking in the yard, at 11 pm, temp was still in low 90's, ground crunched, smelled like west Tx or panhandle...thought i was in Arizona.Smiley Sad

      one of the local parks - thick with pine trees still looks an H bomb was detonated..about half are gone...locals say 2011 was worst since one year in the 1950's.

 

ScreenShot087.gif

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Senior Advisor

Re: mike florez on usfr

Not sure what the maps show now, but parts of Kansas are becoming extremely dry again. Dust storms have almost become a weekly occurrence of the late.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: mike florez on usfr

look in the "drought not done???" thread, Shaggy - for current drought monitor. thx

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Senior Advisor

Re: mike florez on usfr

I DON'T GO HUNTING FOR THREADS, THEY COME TO ME!!! Just kidding, I'll go check it out.
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