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vrbuck
Advisor

more ethanol news from the gooberment

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_YOP_NUS_MBBLD&f=W

The Ethanol plants are finally finding some sensibility, they are starting to really slow production.  Less efficien plant shut downs and slow downs in others should be the normal for awhile until it gets its stock number in order.

 

 

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Even with the slow downs and shut downs the Ethanol stock numbers keep heaving and blovating for all the open space they can find.  I don't know where all the unwanted, unneeded corn ethanol is going to be stored.  It is so appairent that the plants need more cut backs even with talk of four dollar gas.  The stocks are so huge they may need to severly discount produc just for open space, before it is spilled on the ground like NFO's version of overstocked milk in the 80's (noone wants it dump it on the ground).

 

 

 

10 Replies
idalivered
Advisor

Re: more ethanol news from the gooberment

Buck, this is a VERY perplexing situation. I just googled "US wholesale ethanol prices" and the average I found was $1.84. Unleaded gas in my area is selling in the 3.40 range. I'm not disputing the huge stock no., just why wouldn't a retail chain use this product to extend their supply at (what appears to be) very profitable levels?? Your contentionabout discount is noted, but is it really necessary? I'm gonna be the first to say this has to be some type of conspiracy to either strangle the ethanol industry or wrangle blender concessions from the govt. I'm still working on the who is behind it part.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: more ethanol news from the gooberment

With ethanol such a good deal at these prices, those with E-85 compatible vehicles would be lined up around the corner to fillup with it.

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Mike central IA
Veteran Contributor

Re: more ethanol news from the gooberment

Sadly, the consumer will never know that it (ethanol) is a great value. The potential savings will just be soaked up by "middle men" and be pretty much the same price at the pump. Since there is no obvious cost savings, the farmer and the ethanol producers will continue to be accosted by the nay-sayers, and the consumers still won't understand that ethanol usage is actually saving them a small amount on the petroleum part of their fuel due to offsetting a small amount of demand for gasoline. The pro oil folks and the livestock producers (strange bed partners) got the jump on the ethanol crowd, and the ethanol crowd was too slow to respond with their own information campaign.

Agriculture and renewable energy are about the only bright spots our economy has right now, and there seems to be a huge campaign to squash it.

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: more ethanol news from the gooberment

It is neither here nor there.  All I know is the national E-85 price is 3.05, stock ethanol price is around 2.00 per gallon.  the dollar in between is being soaked up by transportation costs and blending costs and profit margins.  Doesn't really matter because we are producing too much ethanol currently.

 

I remember last dec when I argued an ethanol perfect storm was brewing,  A prominant poster here that will be unnamed argued tha ethanol had a floor and the upside was open.  He must have alot of 2010 corn still in the bin.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: more ethanol news from the gooberment

The fact is E85 is a solid 50¢ cheaper than unleaded and most cars newer than `09 are E85 compatible, a consumer needing gas should fillup and enjoy the savings.  All the young entrepreneurs that are looking for the 'million dollar idea" there it is, advertise this at local station actually putting the E85 price on the marquee, with a billboard at the pump with a compatible list under a headline of "Hey Dummy! Wanna save some money?".  I think they could move alot of product.

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: more ethanol news from the gooberment

Not all stations in the major metro areas even carry E-85.  That is a major flaw in that thinking.  Heck it is difficult to find diesel in some  suburban station to fill up the old Cummins 6.7. 

 

Also don't forget that cost saving with the price difference is gobbled up by the lower gas mileage of E-85.

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: more ethanol news from the gooberment

BA, do you own a vehicle that is equipped to burn E85?  If so, have you ever actually compared the fuel mileage versus regular gasoline?  My neighbors who rushed out to buy flex fuel vehicles tell me the average loss in fuel mileage is roughly 25-30 percent depending on the make and model.  Even if E85 is 50 cents a gallon cheaper, it's still higher when comparing fuel mileage.  Even at a 20 percent loss, E85 would have to be roughly 70 cents a gallon cheaper.  The reason I do believe these numbers is because of the amount of E85 pumps we once had locally to how many we have now.  All of the local stations have taken out the E85 pumps.  Currently, the closest E85 pump is now just over 100 miles from me.  This is farm country.  If we can't get farmers to burn E85, what chance do we have getting urbanites to burn E85?

 

On a side note, I've been playing around with E10 the past six months.  I had all but quit using it because I was losing 5-10 percent in fuel mileage.  Before anyone chimes in here about how they've burnt it for umpteen years and gotten as good or better mileage, one must first understand that Nebraska only polices ethanol one way.  They only police that E10 has at least 10 percent ethanol.  They don't police or implement fines if E10 has greater than 10 percent ethanol.  According to those who have had samples run, the local E10 has been anywhere from 12-31 percent at times.  Now that this is out of the way, what I have been experimenting with has been adding a bit of diesel to the E10.  The only reason I first tried this was because I have an 88' ford pickup that vapor locks horribly in the summer if it even gets a sniff of ethanol.  Last summer, I filled up one of the tanks with E10 and the dang thing tried to die every 8-12 miles.  A mechanic told me to put a little diesel in there and it would stop.  This led to my experimenting.  Now that I've honed down my data, I've found that by adding 1/2 a gallon of diesel to every 12 gallon of E10 not only cures my vapor locking problem it also produces much better fuel mileage.  The diesel E10 mix has given me 15 percent better fuel mileage than E10 alone.  Then, I started to compare it to unleaded with no ethanol and was somewhat surprised by the data.  The two vehicles I've compared doing this have resulted in roughly 5 percent better fuel mileage with the E10 diesel mix than straight unleaded.  I can't say as I understand it, but this is what I've found.  Now, I've been burning E10 diesel mix in all of my gas vehicles.  While I realize there are things one can do to their engine like slightly raising the compression to better utilize ethanol, I'm surprised something as simple as adding a bit of diesel to ethanol works as well as it does.  Anybody else have any kind of home brews that have been successful? 

 

 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: more ethanol news from the gooberment

Yes we do Husker, but we live in the sticks and the E85 cardtrol isn`t on the way.  We aren`t ones that run across the county to save a few pennies.  To be honest I have never figured milage and such to say.  There are true believers of ethanol that do say E85 is maybe 2mpg less than unleaded.  I really think it makes a difference on the engine manufacture, kind of like the mid 2000`s Chev Malibu, for some reason that particular car was a lemon and sucked gas like no tomorrow.   I would think that a Cennex could setup a cheap 24/7 cardtrol in a one of many vacant lots in a metro area and with a little advertising at least get consumers to try it and see if it works in their vehicle.  If gas prices hit the predicted $5 and E85 stays at $3 all this discussion will be moot "water will find it`s level".  Right now isn`t ethanol basically a byproduct of the DDG industry Smiley Happy?  If the screws are put to ethanol, will they make it and dump it in the river to still get the DDG`s?

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: more ethanol news from the gooberment

I wouldn't know why they would.  I've never fed DDG's, but I've fed a considerable amount of WDG's.  It's a good feed, but we fed cattle for many years without it.  A lot of the big lots (80,000+) don't even feed distiller's grain because they can't get a big enough constant supply.  The absolute worst thing to ever happen in the feedlot industry is to run out of distiller's grain.  It will knock cattle off feed for a week or longer.  A lot of us that feed the wet do it because it's cheaper than corn.  The screws really will not be put to ethanol because of the mandates.  However, we seem to have hit the proverbial blenders wall.  I have a feeling there will be some growing pains to endure for the ethanol industry for a while.  I read where Brazil's sugar production is expected to be up considerable this year.  It might take a few years, but I still maintain the biggest thing to impact the domestic ethanol market in years to come will be the expiration of the import tariff rather than the blenders credit.   

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