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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

most of the 27% of corn that was not mature on 10/13

is as mature as it is ever going to get.

I'd guess average losses of 5-10% of final dry weight, primarily manifested in TW. Some worse.

Hard telling how much late maturity is already in the calculations.

FWIW, I trespassed into a 6/15 planted field that looks pretty good. Stand is pretty good but kernel counts aren't great- a lot of 14 arounds and more 12s than 16s, grain length not impressive.

Kernels are large as the plant tries to fill what it has to work with. But my guess would be that a 10% TW loss probably balances that.

My guess is 150-160 dry on a field that probably has an APH of 200. That farm probably did 220 or better in the '18 record year.

The light half of the corn that got planted in reasonable time is mostly pretty good, but off last years' record for the most part. 

Although really doesn't tell anything definitive as USDA already has IN and IL down substantially from last years' boomers.

Beans probably a similar tale although still hard to wrap my old head around last year when you'd better have started with an 80 if you were going to brag at church. This year's early planted beans are good, but not that good for the most part.

5 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: most of the 27% of corn that was not mature on 10/13

Nice report. However, the USDA is still too high in their yield predictions. You have to face the fact that their numbers are only a prediction, based on where they want the final numbers to end up.

Of course you know that they wouldn’t want to scare anyone into buying grain ahead of when they actually need it.

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illinifarmer
Advisor

Re: most of the 27% of corn that was not mature on 10/13

Opened some of both crops up last few days just to get an idea it’s not to good.  Soybeans 18% 37bu.  Corn 34% 160bu that’s going to be a long season fellas.  A lot of gaps missing crops drowned out slews and hella washes.  Have to keep your eyes open for sure just to stay safe.  I’ll try again in a week or so, however it’s going to be awhile if ever before they’re ready to harvest.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: most of the 27% of corn that was not mature on 10/13

As far as the 4% that was not dented on 10/13, I guess that's those illusive "corn cover crop" acres.

Final harvested is what really moves the needle and if there's the 3M that the number suggests, that's about half a billion bu.

And yes, I also cling to the belief that final average yield will be lower- even if those suggested abandoned acres round it up a tad.

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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: The fact that corn is $3.90-3.95 and the basis is still +50cents here in the 2nd wk of Oct.

The fact that the price of corn is $3.90 to $3.95 and basis here is still +50 cents in the 2nd week of Oct. tells you something.

  It tells me that despite what the USDA says, people don't think the crop is there.  And maybe the USDA raising the yield was their way of saying 2 million acres of late planted corn won't be harvested.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: The fact that corn is $3.90-3.95 and the basis is still +50cents here in the 2nd wk of Oct.

that's a good point...... the old ---"We won't lie to you when half truth does the job". 

yields went up and eventually acres will come down.  Like somewhere around 68-70 m actually harvested.

because of course we are never going to count the unplanted, destroyed, replaced acres in terms of yield. ?????

maybe......... much of the reason it is just a waste of time reading their "on the clock" scribbling.

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