new export inspections

[vrbuck]

This weeks inspection sheet was pathetic, pityful. 

current week totals equal

     803106 divided by 26 week equals 30889

wasde pace equal

     1700/ by 53 week schedule equals 32000 per week to mee projections

the prior wasde report

     1650 / by 53 week schedule equals 31132 per week o meet the last wasde report

804177 was last years inspection pace which we arent even meeting

When are they gonna take delivery of the sales that everyone is bragging about.  I know we have time left in the year, but shipping prices are at rock bottom prices and the dollar is higher then enything else in the world.  Why isn't china taking delivery now........... 

[Redpower410280]

Has to be corn at ports to load first. Cant fill them with air.

[Buckley_HF]

Tweet by Arlan Suderman of Farm Futures today after inspections were released, "Corn export shipments to date exceed seasonal pace needed to hit target by 35 mln bu, but gap narrowed this week." Another one: "Soybean export shipments to date fall short of seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 30 mln bu, but deficit is shrinking." Buck I believe that you believe what you print, I'm just not sure where the apparent discrepancy is. 

[roarintiger1]

Some people may not believe it until the augers start rattling.

[vrbuck]

http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

The real question is why are sudermans numbers off.  If you don't believe me here is he link to the usda web page.  I don't trust when so called experts, or even amateurs who think they are experts spout off with out verifying i first.  Go the link, we aren't covering any wasde set paces or even last years pace.

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

Here is the last wasde report, shipments are slow and they suck.  Do the math don't let someone else tell you what they want you to see, even in the computer age when everything can be accessed.

[oncearound]

"The real question is why are sudermans numbers off"....

are you really that ignorant vrbuck? you ever heard of the Census Bureau that tracks & reports all imports/exports that is also a Gov Agency? here's a tip for you, stay quiet and be thought a fool rather than continously typing and removing all doubt.......eh Mr. calling Crude Toast in the spring of '07?

[vrbuck]

Read the numbers then around once instead of spouting nonsence.  I write fact not ficion and the link proves it.

[Buckley_HF]

Buck, you wrote: "804177 was last years inspection pace which we arent even meeting."  Well this year's pace is 803106 which you and I can agree upon.  That would put us ONLY 1.071 million bushels behind last years pace.  Last year we exported 1.835 BILLION bushels.  This year USDA has a projection of 1.7 Billion bu, a difference of 135 million bu.  You make it sound disastrous that we are only 1 million behind last year yet we are suppose to export 135 million less this year? I'd say the USDA is low on exports by about 134 million bu as of their latest projection, maybe more if SA crop is as small as some believe.  Stop with this "pityful" export talk. 

[vrbuck]

Then it better pick up the pace  because there was a late year inspection rally last year.  The math is unrefutable as far as the pace needed to make projections (number of weeks divided by accumulated inspections).  I hope you are right that the inspection pace will picks up to meet report but as of right now they are behind. 

The funny thing is your .35 million in export is pitance compared to the expected usda drop in ethanol demand.  The expected drop is ethanol usage is .5 billion compared to .35 million.

[roarintiger1]

USDA's PROJECTED export numbers are 135 million bushels LESS than last year.

Current export numbers say we are ONLY 1.07 million LESS than last year at this time.

This is a huge disparity.....133.93 million bushels worth.

Of course, exports could completely implode.....but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

One can't ignore the facts.