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Honored Advisor

Blacksand

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If you come back on I-90 you`ll notice crops getting poorer as you cross into Minnesota. Around Fairmont Jackson area beans are small corn has been through the wringer.  Around Blue Earth Austin not too bad. Gets poorer past Rochester.  Wisconsin seems bad on I-90, but if you get off the interstate, it looks tremendious.

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Senior Contributor

Hey Buck

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I don't think you got banned for being a bear.  You got banned for getting sucked into yet another one of MT's sagas.  I got sucked into it and let myself get carried away and got booted.  They were nice enough to let me come back and I am greatful.  This is what he does and he is good at it.  I see he is back again under yet another alias.  You got booted because you and a handful of others got into a urinating contest with MT.  It happens.  Been there done that.  It wasn't the fact that you were bearish but the fact that you were continually trying to rub everyone's nose in it.  Being right is fun but a guy needs to be humblel about it too.  Good luck.

Contributor

Re: no bad yields seen on the pofarm tour

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I don't follow ag web or pro farmer and I don't watch Ag Day or US farm report. I have read this forum for years but this is the first thread I have ever commented on. I would say that the PF tour and and the wrap up meeting was/is certainly entertainment and a marketing effort for farm journal media. They didn't say that everything was perfect everywhere. These would be the bullet points that they hit on - and its old news by now.

 

- Ohio, Indiana, &  especially Illinois are phenomanal and consistent. (a littler over the top with the ra, ra, woo who celebrating on their part IMO)

- Consistent is the key in those three states with the highest measured yield check being 284- they basically admitted that they thought they would measure several over 300 but found none.

- Eastern Iowa and southern Minnesota clearly show the signs of to much early season rain and the dryness in the last month.

- Nebraska is good because the dryland is good, not because the irrigated is over the top - they mainly noted poor stands in the irrigated fields from early season problems.

- South Dakota is a solid average, but needs time to finish.

- Western Iowa is also perfect

- Beans planted everywhere and look good everywhere

- Waterhemp explosion in the nebraska beans fields, Chip wouldn't give this up.

 

They are pretty proud of their methodology and the time and effort they put into this tour. 120 some  scouts, 1400 some samples, two legs, multiple routes, ect. I guess its better than guessing by driving down the road, but it seems to me you would need a lot bigger sample set. They sorta bragged about having hit all 99 counties in Iowa and taking over 300 samples in Iowa. A little over three samples per county would no where near seem representative in my opinion. How close have they been in the past to predicting the final yield? I am sure it could it be found quite easily.

 

 

 

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Advisor

Re: no bad yields seen on the pofarm tour

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I never used vulgar or obscene language....ever. I challenge anyone to find a post where I used vulgar language. I knew better with a crashing market. Only bulls can do that in a rising market.
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Senior Contributor

Re: no bad yields seen on the pofarm tour

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Well Buck I don't remember you using foul or vulgar language either.  I believe the bulls that used that kind of language got booted or at least some of them did.  That is usually what gets Tiger booted so you can't say they booted you because you are a bear that used foul language.  Tiger is back over at NAT and is up to his old tricks.  He called someone a D-bag except he spelled it out clearly.  They didn't boot him but they took the post down.  I guess my take on this is you don't have to be vulgar or curse to be offensive.  I think even you can admit that you went out of your way to gring the gears of some guys to the point that it was pretty obnoxious.  I know you think you are the only one singled out but there have been a couple of perma-bulls booted in the past for pretty much the same thing.  I realize there are people that are still posting over there that have posted stuff worse than what you did.  I don't know what to say about that.  I don't know exactly what their criteia is for determining when someone is over the line.  Try not to take it too personal and maybe someday you can come back.  Good luck to you.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Blacksand

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BA Deere, I should be going through Minnesota, it really depends on where the GPS takes me lol. The corn crop in Iowa and Illinois looked solid, but the soybean crop didn't look like anything special. I saw lots of short beans in Iowa, and some of the Illinois beans looked like they needed water. Although the crops in South Dakota look good, they need time. IMO pro farmer takes too much time in Iowa and not enough time in other large producing states. Does pro farmer even sample Wisconsin or Missouri? I don't think pro farmer even samples northern Indiana or northern Ohio. It just seems like they leave too much room for error when they sample only the highest producing areas. I for one think the pro farmer tour is a good thing. I think it keeps USDA honest, and it gives some much needed press to the rural Midwest. IMHO, I don't think we make 14 billion bu of corn this year, probably more like 13.5 to 13.8... Well that's my post for the day, back to vacation!
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Advisor

perfect example of what they do to bears on NAT

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Is how they are treating farmpro11.  He has never harrassed anyone there but the keep badgering and talking smack.  Just talking about mommy taking the computer away is a violation of their rules to post.  But the perpatrators are still there, posting, and  farmpro gets the blame for it.  There is no civil conversation with them.  Your either a farmer and a bull or a shill after their money.

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Honored Advisor

Re: perfect example of what they do to bears on NAT

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Hey VR, isn`t NAT moderated by actual farmers?   They probably have some grain in the bin to and don`t appreciate you guys talking the markets down and laughing about it...they got their finger on the delete button  Smiley Very Happy

 

 

It`s all in the delivery, I see Bob Utterback and Richard Brock and Mark Gold, they are bears but I doubt they`d be asked back on shows if the laughed about markets going down.  If you raise corn, you want the price to be healthy and if you can constructively educate farmers in locking in profits when they are there instead of kicking them when they`re down, I doubt if you would get booted.

 

It`s just human nature, I`ll put up with MT all day if his punchline is "$8 corn", but a bear laughing that "corn is below cost of production  LOL LOL LOL and it`s going still lower LOL LOL LOL"  that`s only a laughing matter if you`re someone that BUYS corn for a living.

 

anyway just my 2¢

Advisor

Re: perfect example of what they do to bears on NAT

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But, LOL isn't a violation of any part of the terms to post there.  You forgot one other person that would post LOL..........Someone that was harrassed to oblivion and sold and hedge his production, unlike the crowd waiting for 6 dollar corn.  Someone that didn't mortgage his future to the hilt.  Someone who is prepared to take advantage of a declining land market.  When you push someones buttons and fall on your face doing it, expect a snapback.

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Advisor

Re: perfect example of what they do to bears on NAT

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Get your buying hat on when corn hits 3.35, give or take a nickle either way.  We may hit an early bottom before fall.  It just means we will run out of sellers or all the bearish news is in.  To drop below that we will need dec to be expired.

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