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Senior Advisor

no bullish news huh?

R2-R6 approx 1000-1200 GDU give or take

 

a very large percentage of the cornbelt is at R1 going into R2

 

next 2 weeks look pretty dang warm if not down right hot for some.  and while there is precip around it is fizziling too.

 

35 GDU/day with hot temps

 

25 GDU/day with moderate temps

 

last year we had many days that struggled to get 18-20 GDU/day

 

1000-1200 GDU's to fill that ear

 

@ 35/day thats 28-34 days of photosynthesis to make the energy to ultimately fill that ear

 

@ 25/day thats 40-48 days of photosynthesis to make the energy to ulimately fill that ear

 

@ 20/day (basically last years summer temps) thats 50-60 days to fill that ear

 

supposed to be high 90's here today, has been in the 90's most of the week and long range shows mid to high 90's thru end of July.  I am sure we are not alone

 

So take 35/day for this year, versus 20/day last year on a 1200 GDU grain fill hybrid.  Thats 32 less days to fill an ear this year versus last year.  32 less days to make energy that ulimately puts weight on that ear.  Not to mention the warm nights and hot days even if you have soil moisture profile that is good, eats up energy.  The plant has to use more of that energy it makes to keep itself cool, and at night when its not producing energy and only using it to cool down, that eats up energy too.

 

lot of people were using 70,000 kernals per bushel last year.  if this heat continues to build and persist we will be looking at 95,000 kernals per bushel.  Close to a 35% reduction in yield even with the exact same kernal count.  And we know kernal count will be down.  I am finding decent girth, but the tip is already pulling back and its only R2.  That will only pull back harder.

 

i keep hearing that you need to feed a bull market everyday.  problem is traders dont know what the hell "CORN" is let alone "FEED"

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7 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: no bullish news huh?

of course they don't know the difference between corn and feed........they are computers.

 

people wake up, most of the trading is done by computers, using models that have nothing to do with "the end product".

 

what does all this amount to ????  yep....you guessed it, but the moderator here prevents us for using such language here.

 

 

and if you think corn is bad......just take a gander at the wheat market......getting a bid of 4.89 right now.

 

you don't want to know what our yeild was this year.

 

i am so $%@! tired of hearing all the reasons for going down......we are too high.....ok, BUT  all the others that are

 

quoting other countys are cheaper......look at what their government programs are directly paying farmers to help

 

offset.......that is the problem these smart@#! keep talking about the market system......there is no market system, and

 

trying to tell us we are too high, and point at say, france......go look at where the main income is to the french farmers,

 

it's not the check from the elevator, but the one from the government.....yet our know it alls, don't seem to understand

 

this........

 

im getting %@ of this

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: no bullish news huh?

I might also add that there are several million acres of corn that is not even going to put a decent ear on......so GDU's don't mean squat for those acres.  This is bullish news.....every day.

 

All of my planted corn plants have decided that it is time to put out the tassels....regardless of size.  4 foot tall corn plants (counting the tassels)  will not produce much of an ear.

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Senior Advisor

Re: no bullish news huh?

Took the phantom up about 10 days ago. From the road at 60 you are impressed knowing what it's been thru

Get up over it and I'm figuring 10% loss right off the top from the holes. Maybe more

Then get out there and you find N firing that's going to rob more bushels yet.

16x38x32K/70K is 275
15x34x32K/95K is 172

Could very well be fields that are 100 bushel off last year but look similar from the road
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Veteran Advisor

Re: no bullish news huh?

what the #$%! is wrong with you two !!  don't you know you are just in a small, isolated place, and has no impact on

the crop overall !!!!!!  Smiley Surprised

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Honored Advisor

Re: no bullish news huh?

el cheapo,  What can I say?  I live a sheltered life.   Smiley Wink

 

BTW, it sure looks like a buying opportunity to me in the corn market.

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Advisor

Re: no bullish news huh?

MT, when i see yesterday's market , you guys in misssouri , south illinois and indiana must be fibbing!! There must be great crops out there in places. I was counting on you for info and turns out you were filling full of BS. 

 

The soybean thing perplexes me also??? I could potentially have some good soybeans, but it takes alot of 60 bpa beans to make up for all the zero's of prevented plant beans. It must be some type of conspiracy. Or the old "we'll ship 'em in from south america" trick!!

 

I will say that all the crappy quality wheat that is being harvested will just become competition for corn, tho. can you feed vomitoxin laced wheat to pigs and chickens??

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Senior Advisor

Re: no bullish news huh?

Corn is variable. From not planted to looks good. Well drained hills planted early that missed the big rains look good, still have holes though. From there it goes down hill literally based on planting date and slope

I've got some ground that will make maybe 1/3 crop. I've got some that could make 9/10 of a crop. And everywhere in between

Beans is a whole nother ballgame. Train wreck is pretty much the common theme if they even got planted
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