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Senior Contributor

not looking good

not sure what to plant. If anything at all. Its a slow grind to the bottom as the strenghth of the dollar prices us out of the “free market”
Plus other countries love our tariff war and step in to fill our orders. Russia is finally back to producing good wheat crops just like they did before the 1917 communist revolt.
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21 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: not looking good

I agree with you 100% and think we are in for a long, hard grind.  Tariff or no tariff, when China can buy soybeans from many countries we'll all be pricing ourselves at or below the cost of production before it's over.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: not looking good

Shouldn`t "we" have a lower cost of production with our high priced dollar?   True our high quality grains and meats are more expensive to purchase around the world (you get what you pay for).  But when we import potash from Ubekibekistanstan we should easily out bid everyone else with our high priced dollar, we already have the cheapest oil right here for nitrogen, Pioneer & DeKalb raise and bag the seed a few miles down the road and machinery manufactured here, don`t we have a built in advantage on production?  And I could add rail, roads and rivers like no other country.

 

 

What could be the deal is we pay $250 for a bag of seed, but Channel sells the same bag for <$200/bag and the middleman soaks us more for fertilizer and gives our competitors sweetheart deals because they wouldn`t buy it if they didn`t get it cheap.   Kind of like Willie Sutton robed banks because "that`s where the money is" and the middleman raking it in says "it`s those darn tariffs, sorry!".  Somewhere along the line they must`ve got the idea we have money.

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Senior Contributor

Re: not looking good

In my opinion whether we have the money or not ag is a captive market both in what we buy and what we sell. All the fingers that are in the money pie have never had it so good! For example, in the past there were acreage set asides of 10-15% plus CRP reductions of 25-40 million acres which all the input players and grain buyers hated! All that matters is total production and of course we listen to the them and try to produce even more which in the short term helps but hurts long term.
What happened to the “ we can compete on a level playing field?” The dollars value is killing
ag and just as it happened in the boom of the 70’s the rest of the world ramped up production and with their weak currencies gained market share! And our country has a cheap food policy. Once markets are filled by competitors customers only come back if we are dirt cheap or their is a worldwide shortage. Obviously there is no shortage so chaep is all thats left. My worry is that there will be another wash out of farmers particularly young cash strapped farmers.
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Honored Advisor

Re: not looking good

"once we lose a market....it`s gone forever & ever, amen" I know that`s one of those oft repeated statements that have became a believed "fact".  However has it been tested in the modern world?  It seems to me that when the tariffs come off on US beans, it will quickly go back to business as usual...it`ll be like a 30% price reduction on Cadillacs and the junky old Fords they`ve had to settle with will look 30% higher.  Competitive price will ultimately win on who gets the sale, the US already has a lock on quality, it`s just the Chinese government made quality a more higher priced. 

 

China has been lucky that there has been plenty plus 1 supply in the world at this time that they decided to play hardball in the one-sided trade war that they`ve been winning for the past 25 years. 

 

There has been no shortage of hype with on the other hand of a record amount of trade shorts in the market making a killing off our carcasses.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: not looking good

Reminding  folks ,  of  the  true  co$t  of  seed  in the  S. America's  and  our  competitors,  else  where ,  while  full,  retail  pricing  remains  the  option  here -  -  -

 

Sweet  Deal$ ,  of  course  -  and  hard  ball  -  on  your  dime  this  time  -   ? 

 

Round   2 '+    for  M   F   P   and  a  melody  of   '' This  Ain't  Kansas  Anymore  ''   T O T O  -  -  - 

 

The   word   duped   keeps  appearing ,  as  blatantly  opens  the  show  -   maybe ,  and  the  border  closing  obstructs  our  exports  - right   -  ?          

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Honored Advisor

Re: not looking good

Well, after hundreds of billions of dollars in annual trade deficits, China owns Smithfield meats and Syngenta ...yeah Syngenta after they played the red herring of not buying Viptera traited corn (they wouldn`t buy the grain...sooo they bought the company)....and what else?  They had I think it was a 60% tariff already on our pork pre-2016.  If you want to be honest about it, the Chinese always feathered their nest first and prior to 2016 it was always our feathers that they plucked.

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Senior Contributor

Re: not looking good

So why would we let them? If u got burbed by a neighbor wouldnt u quit dealing with him? China and Russia are communists they play by different rules. America got addicted to cheap goods that we had them make.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: not looking good

True, not looking good at all! Who is to blame? Trump and tariffs are an easy scapegoat, but you would have to be ignorant to believe it. What are the real issues here? 1) The high value of the dollar doesn't help export goods to countries poorer than us, i.e most countries on this planet. 2) Most of the fund money left ag commodities years ago. The economy is hot right now, so why would money managers throw money into commodities? 3) My favorite, THE FARMERS THEMSELVES! This is a slow grind to the bottom because most farmers will not re-negotiate land rents, imagine if you were paying $20-$30 an acre less for land rent, would you still be in the red? Seed is a big one, I sold seed for years, and its always negotiable. Do your homework on seed. Some of those traits and treatments you pay for you don't even need! 4) Lastly, diversification, remember that with commodities you are always working against the lowest cost producers. If you are not making enough on "volume in" or "volume out," you will need to diversify.

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Honored Advisor

Re: not looking good

HWR247,  it was allowed to happen because of ignorance and complacency on the part of voters  over the last 30 years.   Now like Gulliver some of us have waken up tied down by the Lilliputians.   "why would we let them" (China take advantage of us) isn`t the big question, the big question is now that it`s out in the open what happened is why do we ALLOW IT TO CONTINUE?   We now have an administration that will actually do something about the sucking sound of money and jobs leaving the country and here we sit like a bump on a stump trying to glean anything out of the Mueller report to kneecap the president with.   The Israelites didn`t sabotage David when he was the only one willing to fight Golliath.

 

But pre 2016 there were Democrats that at least gave lip service to addressing the trade deficit, but that all changed post 2016.   The problem is we task outfits like the soybean association to "sell soybeans" that single issue, they don`t give a rip about anything in the economy as a whole, only sell soybeans.  And all the other groups represent their narrow band of interest as well.

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