not very helpful

[hardnox]

Crop conditions barely budged.

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-06-27-2016.pdf

8-14 is a bit warmer but quite a bit wetter in important areas.  That can change, but as we've seen so can 16-30s. And those have an even lower probability.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

[timetippingpt · Accepted solution]

I begin have less confidence in crop conditions all the time.

There is at least 10% in IN under severe moisture stress after a late planting. Bad combination, yet

the G/E actually went up, with only 7% in the poor/very poor corner.

The numbers don't correlate well to yield anyway, but it would be nice if they at least made sense. 

🙂

[hardnox]

I don't have any illusoins about that system but this doesn't provide any ammo for bulls.

But fwiw back in the bad old days when there wasn't much fundamental pulse it was a general rule of thumb that it took two weeks of declining conditions plus a bullish forecast to sustain a rally.

If that 8-14 forecasts busts I'm sure we'll rally.

[roarintiger1]

USDA's outdated-ness is and has been just plain ridiculous.    The fact that they can't tie into reports from the FSA offices and crop insurance numbers is just plain crazy.   Their outlandish claims of record yields before the crops are even planted should be terminated.  And the crop ratings?   I'm not sure who is in charge, but they should be looking for a new job.