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Frequent Contributor

odds of a trade deal with China

Those crafty Chicom technocrats lobbed a well calibrated bomb in the direction of the WH and it landed with perfection- Trump overreacted and stocks tanked. Currently the market is recovering a bit with the usual walk back.

Seems, as they continue to outplay him, that the likelihood of some sort of USMCA type nothingburger agreement becomes greater.

In case you haven't heard, next year is an election year. Trump's singular achievement is the DJIA, and all Xi has to do is maneuver Trump into getting it down below the year end lows.

I still slightly favor the odds of some sort of what I described- a USMCA style nothingburger (slight changes to "the worst deal ever"). While nothing on the order of all the massive agricultural sales promised, it would be better for agriculture than the status quo.

For Trump to win he's going to have to put this thing aside- of course while claiming victory. And he's probably going to have to attempt one or more of the unconventional stimulus measures that he's hinted at.

Of course there's the other side that I gave a bit shorter odds to- that he doesn't have it in him to be politically pragmatic. 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

USMCA also "good for agriculture" since MX and CA are our #1 and #3 ag trade partners.

As was NAFTA, which is why all the major commodity and farm groups supported "the worst deal ever."

But House Dems are now in an interesting spot. Labor Dems were the primary opponents to the original NAFTA, although Gingrich's crew and the Clinton DLC Dems pushed it through. 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

There's tragedy in this farce.

The matter of how the former hegemonic power deals with the rising power is of the highest magnitude of importance. You can't stop it, but you can maximize your still considerable influence out across many decades or even centuries.

Not a good time, at all, for people accepting "it can't get an worse so do something" and proceeding with the notion that every bum pounding on a bar knows how to fix everything a whole lot faster than those experts.

Hostility to science, expertise, intellectualism is one of the hallmarks of fascism.

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Honored Advisor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

So.........three posts on the subject and I didn't read your actual "odds of a trade deal with China."

 

For what it's worth,  Many Americans want President Trump to tighten the screws on China......not loosen them.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

I think I said better than 50/50. If not, that's my parlay.

Negotiating with the Chicom technocratic brain trust is a lot harder than stiffing a bank over what you owe them.

In the case of the banks, they're over the barrel at that point.  "You made a mistake, you trusted me."

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

parlay on..................

 

It is about time you and many real science folks climb on the radical media and heir fasciest use of "climate change" and expertise not present to develope the "Climate and Trade War" hysteria............"Hostility to science, expertise, intellectualism is one of the hallmarks of fascism"

Explain the Court ruling in British Columbia where the Penn State Doctorate lost his liable suit over his use of a hockey stick on taxpayers if they don't toe the political line.  --- the true fascist can generate his own "intellectualism" as he monkeys with a computer model..... and claim to do it "scientifically".

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Honored Advisor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

Better than 50/50..........Let's hope so.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

I didn't say it would be a good deal. More along the lines of NAFTA 2.0.

But for agriculture, better than nothing.

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Honored Advisor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

This is the problem, the certain political party in the US would vote for president Xi of China over President Trump at the ballot box, regardless of the birther issue that president Xi would have.  Smiley Happy

If the United States was "united", the "trade war" would be over and won by us a year ago...yesterday`s news.   Trade wars are not hard to win so long as the victim (us the US) wants to win.  You know, if the Democrats put as much time and energy fighting the Chinese as they do the Republicans, the Chinese would be weeping in the fetal position.  But instead the Dems are rolling the dice of "if China wins, then we`ll win in November 2020" that`s too easy of a shiny object to not stick in their pocket.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

No, but I would say that if Trump/Xi manage to appreciably slow the US economy by next fall then Trump loses.

Due to the bumbling, the next administration will inherit a weakened hand to play against China but they'll still have to play.

The rest of the developed world seems to have a remarkably short memory as demonstrated by how quickly they embraced Obama after Bush. The next POTUS will need to rally them around the effort.

Going it alone- in fact while simultaneously antagonizing those allies- was an enormous mistake.

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