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Frequent Contributor

odds of a trade deal with China

Another round of euphoria over a "resumption of talks" 

I'm still at about 50/50 whether Trump will roll over and accept a NAFTA v. 2.0 style nothingburger or continue to dig in his heels.

I'm at about 0 on getting anything that materially reduces the bilateral trade deficit.

But even if it was nowhere near what was initially promised, a bad deal is better for agriculture than no deal.

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Honored Advisor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

100%

Far more than agriculture needs it....... Unless we see tariff as a way to tax the illusive tech firms.  Then we are better off without a trade deal.

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Senior Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

 Yep 100% however after 2 years just think of the money saved if it never even became an issue?  Some of us said this 2 years ago. A real shame so many had and have to suffer because of a poor decision. Anyone see the Dow today ? Hilarious how many times this has happened all for negative or zero results.  Never stopped them from making money from the peasants in the process., Sad

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

 

Euphoria? Where, maybe Florida as it was a near miss with Dorian, but in the markets? Beans down 12, now there is some euphoria! SP up 30ish, big whoop.

Are you blind hardbody? Tens of thousands of jobs moving from China to Mexico, and other less hostile areas. I suspect most in the world are missing the whole point of this endeavor, and it has nothing to do with ag.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

There is, and never was, any workable strategy there.

You guys kinda remind me of Rumsfeld telling about how we're just mopping up a few dead enders.

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

China has a civilian workforce of around 600M.

Since 2014 they've lost about 30M manufacturing jobs as they've gotten more efficient (shh, don't tell anybody but there's been some of that in the US too).

Their trade surplus with the US is around 4% of their GDP. Exports to the US have fallen a bit but exports to other countries have more than offset that.

They are fully able to withstand this.

Most of what China is feeling is being felt here and most everywhere else too. Some disruption of the Asia supply chain and a freeze on business investment owing to uncertainty.

All we've really done is elevate the internal power of the hardliners.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

And yes, 1B Bu of soybeans is only $10B against a $400B trade deficit. Even the most optimistic deal that included a lot of meat and other stuff is unlikely to net more than $20-30B. Not closing the gap but way better than the present situation as far as agriculture is concerned.

Say what you will, but TPP was at least a coherent strategy. Like with NAFTA v. 2.0, we signed a single party equivalent with Japan, although not before we'd lost out on a lot of multi-party deals in the vacuum.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

Liberals like Bernie Sanders were against TPP, I don`t know or care why.  However sensible people on "my team" were against it, because it was a Trojan Horse.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/04/22/tpp_equals_mass_immigration_126347.html  

 

Under the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free trade agreement, Congress could lose the power to restrict immigration. We could find ourselves back in the era before the 1920s when there were no restrictions on immigration and anyone from anywhere could come to our shores. And Republicans, from Mitch McConnell and John Boehner on down, are unwittingly helping Obama achieve this goal.

The TPP, generally supported by pro-free trade Republicans but opposed by labor union Democrats, contains a barely noticed provision that allows for the free migration of labor among the signatory nations. Patterned after similar provisions in the treaties establishing the European Union, it would override national immigration restrictions in the name of facilitating free flow of labor.

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

I think I made it clear that I wasn't crazy about TPP- but that it was at least a strategy (and good for agriculture).

The current non-strategy is led by a guy who played an economist on TV and a second rate professor from a jerkwater college. It is a lose-lose and ultimately will be a loser for this President.

BTW, while you and Your People are at it, it may be hard to pass NAFTA2, between them and Those People. Which would leave us without a functioning trade agreement with our leading ag trade destinations.

I know you have other urgent priorities and  admire your "patriotism".

Given the 50% chance that I parlayed on Trump rolling over and signing a bad agreement, I'll await your victory lap.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

Spoiler
Don’t forget someone has to be stupid to make your logic ferry tale  work.  
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