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Honored Advisor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

No you didn`t make it clear that you weren`t a fan of TPP, I take it you`re more of a fan of it now because the guy in the White House was against it and  got rid of it, right?  

This is just my opinion, but the only way there`ll be a trade deal with China is if they are desperate. If you`re in the camp that China is a untiring super stud, don`t hold your breath, even if you can not breathe until 2021 when there`s a "president Pocahontas" or whoever.  Agriculture is small potatoes in the global sit-rep ...oh I know, when you`re on your prayer bones in your banker`s office, it`s all that matters, in reality we`re all a pimple on the pachyderm`s butt.  Oh I know "we`ll be important when people are starving!!!" Yup, until then though there`s always a greater fool looking for another quarter to rent.

In my opinion President for life Xi won`t even give President Liz a break, China`ll buy Brazilian beans just to spite us for eternity, better get used to it.  We have to win the trade "war" that is the only chance where agriculture could be a part of a bigger package.  Which isn`t that far fetched, because what`s China going to agree to buy from us as a token gesture $5 Walmart shirts? Tv sets? $2 adjustable wrenches?  About the only things they would possibly need from us is agricultural.  But better win the trade "war".

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Frequent Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

Worth noting that for agriculture, NAFTA2 isn't a bad deal. It is a lot better than having no deal with our top markets.

But do need to note that "the worst deal ever" went to being OK with a few very minor tweeks.

In part, it is just a fact that the North American auto supply chain is fully integrated and severe disruption would cause a lot of pain. MX and CA are the #2 and 3 markets for cars out of that chain. It's hard to tell where all the value was added but MX and CA car import/exports appear to be about a wash. The only way the US wins on that is if we assume we can pull all production back and still maintain market share.

Same really for the East Asian electronics supply chain. A lot of US IP and components from Korea, Japan, Taiwan are assembled in China but actual value added is certainly overstated.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

It’s really a nice distraction the lack of a deal with a country we banned from trade for half my life.  Was there ever a “deal” before Clinton made the give away “deal”.  

It distracts from the real problems at home for agriculture.  Trying to compete in an economy of federally generated and protected  monopilies  with rules China will never live by  — we should never trade with them.

i think a deal gets done because tech needs it and China never has to live up to it. Ag  in the US is screwed either way and tech will sell their kids to funds managers to keep the cash flowing  — which might explain the steady sale of corn on paper.  China is not the most corrupt country in the trade   

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

You guys don't need to feel like the lone rangers- you're fairly representative of the farm community.

But seriously, you're burning up a lot of electrons trying to convince yourselves you weren't wrong, at least in this particular.

Don't feel bad though- you got rolled by one of America's leading con men.

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Honored Advisor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

I have a president.  You have name calling and blaming.  My integrity is in tact. 

If your choices had any integrity I might have a different president —- that’s not my fault.  I am not the fool who threw it away  

Im enjoying the new leadership approach.  I think it’s good for us and our international relations.  Tired of the perpetual scams and educational insanity. 

Senior Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

Time, you give way too much credit it to trump.  The bunbling idiot isn't even coherent anymore.  Only trump voters try to figure there is some strategy to all this mess!

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Frequent Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

Stormy payoffs help.

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Senior Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

Okay, I'll play.

I would give the odds at 70/30 that no trade deal is made with China over the next five years. From the beginning, I have always felt that this entire ChiCom/Trump dust up was much less about winning or losing any trade war than it was about America somehow finding a slow, costly, painful, yet still peaceful means of economically decoupling from an autocratic industrial dynamo that views America as its eventual strategic enemy.

To me, at least, the outcome has almost nothing to do with the sale of soybeans or corn. It does, however, have everything to do with a 30 year trade history of state sponsored intellectual property theft, currency manipulation, mandatory revelation of trade secrets in order to sell in the Chinese markets, and an altogether unrecognizable communist government sense of either personal property rights or any western notion for the rule of law. None of this is likely to change with the mere signing of a piece of paper, no matter who is either in the White House or running things out of Bejing.

Personally, and from watching Hong Kong's weekly civil disobedience brew ups; having my own money too heavily committed to anything directly or indirectly tied to the central Chinese government just scares the bajeebers out of me. If President Xi and his pals should ever decide to go ugly with their people, they will also end up violently shaking half the world, to include Vietnam, The Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, India, Indonesia and Malaysia.

If the worst should occur, I am hoping to limit the damages with a well diversified portfolio.Then again, who really knows were this will finally end? Explosions, boxes of chocolates, and unplanned wars are all usually like that...ehhh?

 

 

Honored Advisor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

Yes, the China Fan Boys are basically liberal "never Trumpers" ...it`s 100% political.  Up until 3 years ago if a Democrat politician SAID what Trump is actually DOING about China, these same fan boys would`ve given that Democrat politician a standing ovation.

But since us tabacka chewin`, shotgun totin`inbred farmers support Trump (a guy they THINK is going to take away their free stuff) the Fan Boys now love China.  And try to convince us, that oh boy "Soybeans would be $12 if it wasn`t for Trump!" ...Beans are only $1 higher in Brazil with them selling to China (no where near $12) but don`t let facts get in the way of a good bashing. 

And Huawei phones and China roller chain is "Gonna hit your pocketbooks!"  ...As long as our Coppenhagen doesn`t go up and Walmart keeps selling 12 gauge shotgun shells, we`ll be alright   Smiley Happy 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: odds of a trade deal with China

Say what you will, what the Chicom technocratic elite has accomplished in 40 years is nothing short of stunning, and you sell them short at your own peril.

I might gently suggest that the wastrel scion of a NY crime family who recently played a billionaire on TV is probably not the guy you want to send up against them.

This is only going to end in one of two way- Bad Deal or No Deal.

Bad Deal will be better than nothing for Ag and if it comes to pass, this site and the entire wingersphere will rejoice like angels. It is probably the only path to Trump's re-election. Retreat and proclaim victory.

No Deal and Trump doesn't get re-elected. Many Americans aren't as patriotic as you guys, or put more succinctly, don't get Stormy payoffs when the POTUS blunders.

Some moderate but worthwhile things could have been achieved with a sound strategy.

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