My heuristic (intellectual shortcuts) view of markets leans heavily on Elliott Wave.
From my count I think the SP could very well be in 3 of 5 of 5 of 5 ad infinitum- meaning that a major, generational peak is near.
But it is in 3 on a daily degree and that counsels patience. Final blowoffs with a lot of skepticism can be real face rippers so I want to see at least the look of a possible fully completed final move before fighting it. Or a clear failure. (As far as investments go, I've been in bonds, which have turned out better although I didn't anticipate to this degree. Moved some to cash last week).
It is probably too neat, but it all makes sense to me. We have the election effect plus coordinated support of markets globally. But the next 4-8 years are likely to be pretty bad regardless who is elected.
The last 8 years have solved nothing but they were a marvelous can kicking exercise that gave plenty of time to prepare, for those who were inclined.
The memory of fighting to hold shorts near both the 2000 and 2007 peaks is burned in my memory.
Perhaps I learned something, maybe not. Luck, events will play a role, which is a very good thing to remember lest we get too sure of ourselves and put too many chips out.
Without commentary, I think that if we get past the conventions and there's the real possibility that Trump will be elected, markets are going to pitch a fit that will make the little post-Brexit deal look even punier than it was. And I imagine the PTB will be a little bit more equivocal as to whether they want to save the world or scare the hell out of the voters.
In the end the election may be decided by who is favored by the last of the weekly mass casualty events, so I anticipate a wild ride.
