ok...Knocking on the door on $7

[Red Steele]

I think the market has pretty much done its job, digesting the available info, the possibility of China Sales, the possibility of oil going to $120...the very short old crop supplies.  The so-called market guru's that looked at the numbers in January and called for $7.10 corn look pretty bright today....maybe they have enough clout and following that when they pick a number, it will most likely go there.

From here on, all best are off. I think the market has reached equilibrium, and needs new information. It is just as likely to go up as to go down. Anyone holding much old crop now has a lot of guts, a lot of money they don't need, or a real tolerance for risk.

I salute you. I think I am going to bail. May even sell some 2011 if Monday  goes up another dime.

[rightone]

Red just keep selling and delivering cash physical monthly ( and as logically as moving snow works too ).

Ground is froze so it's a good time to sell and deliver the physical March and April schedule now.

Heck cash corn was good in Oct, good in Nov, great in Dec, great in Jan and Feb looks good too.

Probably be pretty muddy in March ( maybe not too...but chances more so than not ) can get tough to move volume in the spring ( DOT will remind folks of that every year it seems ).

Time return profit for agri is likely to become more focused on timely input purchases, vs trying to out guess sales marrkets that are generally pretty good anyway.

[idalivered]

You're right. Just yesterday read about good south african crops and improving conditions in south america. I also wonder about all the less than milling quality wheat that is sure to come out of australia. china will soak that up quickly just on cheaper transportation. isn't the saying that " a bull needs to be fed every day".

[nwobcw]

Something has entered the market arena that could upset the applecart.   Egypt.  Fox business news reported of countries stockpiling grain, including China.

[muddymiller]

In contrast, US Grains Council reports China's corn reserves are very low and they need to buy. Who do you believe?

[nwobcw]

   After listening to Ag secretary speak about no inflation of food I wouldn't believe him if he told me the sun rises in the east.

[GoredHusker]

I'm really beginning to wonder about Vilsack.  It seemed sensible to release acres from CRP, but Vilsack says he has no intentions of doing that and actually wants to expand CRP.  Bernanke is a little hard to read as well.  He says the U.S. monetary policy has nothing to do with double digit inflation in countries abroad even though most things sold globally are sold in U.S. dollars.  I don't know whether he's ignorant or whether he's just saying what he believes will appease the gov't.  It will be very interesting to see whether Bernanke has the balls to implement Q3 or not. 

[teaspoon73]

               USDA will never let CRP acres go early. To many law suites to contend with. A lot fewer acres in CRP now than in 2008. Bernenke will follow through on Q3. Especially when the stockmarket starts nose-diving.

[k-289]

Maybe we can get John Block to give us some info on Ethanol and the grain stocks along with grocery inflation ?

[Palouser]

Though many major commodities traded globally are priced in dollars, that is not the crucial element. The relationship of the local currency and the $$$$ are. Besides, often the domestic price is affected by other factors and policies that aren't dependent on the $.