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Veteran Advisor

old Crop Peaks?

Corn makes it back to a little over $7...beans a bit over $15....is there more steam left, or is this the ceiling?

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22 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: old Crop Peaks?

Lets see here:

 

It is one week before June 1.      16% of the beans are planted in Iowa

 

Parts of Minn and Wis are basically very close to zero on row crops.

 

The run up on beans last week shook lose 3 to 4 weeks of running for the bean processors.

 

ADM and a bean outfit in Minn started this cascade of 60 cents down on the basis yesterday.

 

An annalist on the radio this forenoon was talking like this years crop was in the bin. Said any of us with beans in the bin were fools. Said they would just ship it in from SA (I paraphrased that) .Did I mention 16% planted in Iowa bean fields?  Something like +25% of this years corn is in the bag yet.

Wish I had caught his name.

84% of the beans are in the bag in Iowa.  You want to know why that is important? IOWA IS # 1 in corn AND BEANS. You bet there are cases of great yields with late planted beans BUT that is the exception.

 

 

They also shifted their basis month to Aug. Just more confussion .

 

China was here this morning shopping for corn ....why ? Everybody else has great mountains of the stuff cheaper.

 

Quite the case of musical chairs being played out down on the stage, glad I have my own front row chair in the peanut gallery. 

 

"I call " their bluff.  Show me the cards ...

 

edit; WE ARE muddy here and rain in the forecast from  Sat on... 25% of the corn and most of the beans not planted. Yea right the crop is as good as in the bin...BS

Senior Advisor

Re: old Crop Peaks?

This is just me thinking out loud here --  But this is not about new crop or how many acres that are planted Red - It has to do with it being latter -  We are short to begin with right ? ( old crop ) then move new corn comeing in back a month -- this rally today -- to me is end users trying to cover there needs , Is there still more to go ? beats me - but will say this - a neighbor got 2 calls from elevators today trying to lock in any corn they can find .

 

Beans at 1.10 basis here -- corn plus 47

 

i think we are out of both corn and beans - around here  anyway .

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Honored Advisor

Re: old Crop Peaks?

Almost 100% of the corn is in in NW Ohio......It is coming up and looking good.    However, we have had just 3/10 of an inch of rain in the last 3 weeks and many of the beans may not come up without a rain.      Beans are probably 70-80% in.      We are in an area that had decent crops last year and yet the corn basis is +48 at the local ethanol plant and beans are +70 at a local bean processing plant.     Most everyone I know that has grain storage has had it pretty much cleaned out for several months.   

The USDA's numbers are painting us into a corner.   

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Veteran Advisor

Re: old Crop Peaks?

more steam left?  who's even seen any?

 

from my view, the engines have not started back up yet.

 

like someone else wrote on the thread here ---look at the calendar, consider what has not been planted yet....namely the corn in MN, IA, IL, IN......and could be more than the good ole USDA says is left to plant....most of which will NOT be until after Memorial Day, and probably not all of it, at that, etc. 

 

all the analysts are bearish -- just like last year ----spec $$ is balanced---old crop will trade through end of Aug while grain filling going on into mid Sep. follow the $$$

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Senior Contributor

Re: old Crop Peaks?

C-X. Great post. "Any steam left"?! This corn market has been in the crapper ever since big money got torched on the march report. I do believe we are still very tight both corn and soya, and a LONG way to go till harvest. The bears will tell you we will just import our needs, which we will to an extent, but are they telling me we are gonna have a convoy of ships loaded with corn and beans coming upstream all summer?! Come on. Cash market will keep doing its job, no matter how long the guys on Lasalle have their heads buried in the sand. And on a side note, if all of a sudden equities aren't as attractive anymore as they have been for a long time, maybe some money will move back to a tight fundamental grain market.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: old Crop Peaks?

thanks Buckley,

 

had not seen DOW & S & P charts --wow, what an outside/expanded day lower!

 

the CRB bottomed last year on June 1. if the real public starts coming in about the time summer heats up- bear trap?

 

i've been most amazed new crop traded w/in 13 cents of last springs low --fire sale? 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: old Crop Peaks?

a quote from "an analyst" Mike interviewed from floortalk today--------

 

If a producer isn't holding onto any old crop corn or soybeans I would just disregard these moves as  noise and focus on getting their new crop marketed while prices are still at profitable levels.  We are still long term bearish," he says---------the $$$ says it is not just noise----------somebody has been opening positions in the last week - 30-40k contracts...........so he's also implying if you're sold out of old crop you'll miss out on the old crop rally.........you gotta read between the lines...........hope you producers know better.......that's one way to utilize the futures.

 

esp in beans-b/c of the rally. general rule of thumb - if a rally's accompanied by increasing OI, it has legs!

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Honored Advisor

Re: old Crop Peaks?

Can you imagine buying corn delivered through New Orleans.  Or brought in from the west coast on one of Omaha's finest trains------------ the one that hasn't derailed yet.--------------------------- We had another one this last week.

 

Thats corn for $4 bought in Brazil, $2 sea freight, $4 inspection and import fees, $3 river freight to Catoosa.  $ 3 extra water supply charge to raise the Mississippi from the state of S. Dakota, Missouri, Montana, and cousin Sal in New Jersey(God rest his soul).  And a $0.25 call from the port to a 350 mile semi western feedlot saying "it's here --------------- we got an opening tomorrow at 3:15 ,

we close at 4.  Only opening we got --- otherwise, we will have to reschedule you for next month and add the storage charges to the $2/bu handling fee and of course there will be the inland inspection fee..............................

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Veteran Advisor

Re: old Crop Peaks?

sw,

do i read (add) this correctly - yer sayin' someone's payin' $16.25 bu for Corn, now?????????   in the USA?

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