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Honored Advisor

Re: old Crop Peaks?

Sorry HH,

 

I really didn't see enough to justify the move.  I really think the reassurance of QE funds by bernanke was a plus for the market buyers ---------- along with late planting ---------meaning no meaningful supply of corn til september or after.

 

But there was not a big enough buy to justify the move.  IMO

 

 

Hobby's points are valid---------- when there is not much grain around it does not take lot of buying to propel the market.  

 

Finally the usda report this last week should have knocked the market down hard, but it did not.   That might be the real reason for todays move.

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Senior Contributor

Re: old Crop Peaks?

With the record crop ins. payouts of 2011 and exceeding that record by about 150% in 12 don't see how there can be much grain around.

Also with the record planting pace of corn last week I wonder how many of those acres are a little under managed as far as fertilizer and pre weed control.

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Honored Advisor

Re: old Crop Peaks?

HH,

 

Since your in cattle.  Let me give you what I see as the strongest reason for a strong grain market this summer( and without a great crop season) strong fall market.

 

The price of cattle.

 

The perfect storm in cattle would be a drought so there is no cheap grazing coupled with high feed prices, and a weak economy.  In this case cattle market should be falling as we sell higher and higher numbers of our cow herd, flooding the meat market.

Yet ---- cattle prices remain high.  There is still a $1+ basis in this area.  Cattle are still being fed.  And no one is boycotting meat because it is too expensive.

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