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Advisor

oops, back toward a yield curve inversion?

2/10 collapsing to +10 bps intraday.

A much, much, much larger problem should it walk over 3 Fed rate cuts and a 1/4$T of POMO and still invert.

That would be bunker time.

BTW, I can't overemphasize the catastrophic extent of the mistake of first jawboning rates lower ahead of the Fed and then jawboning stocks higher with fake statements about trade.

Some people just can't shut their mouths, or still their fingers.

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Advisor

Re: oops, back toward a yield curve inversion?

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=vix&insttype=&freq=&show=

As I predicted, VIX shot to the downtrend line as it blew some specs who were grabbing some of that easy money out of the water, then settled down as the commercials on the other end of that insurance adjust their portfolios.

It may take a few days of back and fill, or not, but I think that the VIX will take that trendline out and proceed toward the 50 area.

That would at minimum mean another 300 points or more down in the SP500.

Merry Christmas.

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Advisor

Re: oops, back toward a yield curve inversion?

Also can't overemphasize the significance of the major indices breaking a very long term topline and then failing sharply. A classic throwover on a terminal move.

In my experience those are matters where you want to believe your lying eyes as much as your brains and ears- all the chatter and noise- tell you not to.

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Honored Advisor

Re: oops, back toward a yield curve inversion?

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Veteran Contributor

Re: oops, back toward a yield curve inversion?

 
IMG_0060_1575419928665.jpg
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