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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

+ or - 5% of trend in numbers

A hat tip to the Chipster on what`s at stake for corn and above or below in the trend yield.  Chip sez 5% either way of trend (167) is a $2 swing in corn price.  So with 167bu X $4 is $668 gross.


8 bushel less is 159bu X $5 or $795 gross    8 bu more 175 yield is $3 or $525 gross.   We`d all be better off taking a 5% yield haircut and grossing $795/acre. 


Everyone is different,  one year ago some may have sold a big share of their `15 new corn at $4.50, to them "taking a yield haircut" isn`t something that they would like to see happen.


If we do see a 175 trend, I`m afraid that $3 corn is overly optimistic and the hole that we will have to dig out of will take longer and be deeper than what we`d like to see.


At anyrate there isn`t much to do other than sell new crop for $3.60 (possibly a little more later) or plan on storing until spring of `16...but store a 175 bu trend yield crop???


Just my 2¢ to mull over. Alot of it obvious.

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4 Replies

Re: + or - 5% of trend in numbers

Thinkin' today too.  If we as farmers take a voluntary 5% cut in planted acres  we could fix "bad" places in fields, take a little more time to do the job right, take 5%of the high priced seed back, have 5%of inputs in our pocket and be way better off in the long run.


But alas, it will never happen.


Another thing--- Due to the drop in scrap prices I am assuming new steel has dropped a bunch too so why did a few steel parts i had to buy cost so dam much!

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Senior Advisor

Re: + or - 5% of trend in numbers

Rawhide, I'm setting 30% aside.
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Re: + or - 5% of trend in numbers

Good for you shaggy!  I hope it's not too drastic of a decision for you. I know you guys have to worry about your water.  I am thinking about seeding some to hay ground and I don't have any cows.

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Re: + or - 5% of trend in numbers

I am setting aside 5%, so I can fix it this summer. The proplem is, once fixed it will become more productive.
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