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sw363535
Honored Advisor

overwhelming supply ??

Every time usda reports how overstuffed the world is with grain I like to look for some historic support... I thought this series of charts was interesting.  Went back to it when China's numbers were discussed....  China is very convenient for those who want to believe in massive over production..

 

 

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2 Replies
timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: overwhelming supply ??

Great point SW...of course, it could be argued that you had to search a long way down the internet rathole to find data to support your views :-)

 

Price has always been, and will always be, a function of PERCEIVED supply vs. demand. Right now, folks percieve a lot of piles in places that can't leave it in piles forever. That should start changing this year thankfully.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: overwhelming supply ??

Time I actually think the market still speaks to us in relation to supply/demand/movement even though it is now a global issue.... actually it was global before tech boom.

 

But the information folks at usda and in nearly every US Publication that prints Ag marketing news writes "off topic" or repeats the missinformation they find so readily at usda.  Like many other segments of the Economy, those who regulate and publish have become too distant from the subject... So they grab an easy thought,  or one that comes with a graphic/picture (ie grain piles).............................. and they miss the point entirely....  When there are 5 possible reasons for an event the worlds press can't see past the one usda printed....  

topping that ... no analist can sum up an economic activity of that size in 4 "proverbs" or a news sound bite for the state of Iowa. let alone the us or Brazil... or china....  

We are depending on amateurs for professional results..... or worse yet bureaucrats and politicians.  

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didn't search far at all ..... but you make a good point..... we do have mind changing data available to us easier by far than before the internet.  If we look "deep" enough for it and see it without having to defend sources or someones job,  we can still get a three demensional view of the markets or a clearer pictuire, so to speak.. There is always "more to the story"...

That is why we are blessed to have a viewpoint like Rays among us... and other diversities.  Size and mental bias. (ie money, funds. etcetc.) ----- and ya gotta expect more than we get from most every source.

 

Had a great discussion from a Long time cattle feeder about the affects on their side of ethanol and the changes in corn flow.  Not to mention also a time spent on grain movement changes and it's affect on traditional grain storage facilities along with regulatory changes........ the scope and function of our business is always changing....... and interesting.  

Out here the producer and end users are taking over the logistics function of grain without choice.  Elevators are being hit by the grain price slide and regulation as well. 

Those kind of interviews and issues just give us a better focus on where we are and how we fit in.

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