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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

please explain to me the usda report

I know I'm out here in the middle of
Nowhere.....and I don't have a PhD

BUT

How in the %&*! Do you figure a record
Corn crop and a huge wheat carry over
And the same with beans.....

Just how do they come up with the
Numbers?

Then add in the crazy way trading is
Done........

I must admit I have taken a 900 level psy class, when I used to help farmers who
Were going to jump off the barn roof.....
Not even that helps me figure the total
Disconnect on what is really going on in
the country.

In my humble, professional opinion....

They are nuts!

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17 Replies
c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

sounds like you answered your question: "they are nuts"

 

they can't count on a crop failure - that's understandable----but the boom mentality during a solar maximum as MT, jenny mn, and others have so eloquently alluded to.......is kindergarden work.......@ least they could use some high school formulas, EY??????????????????????????

 

THEY ARE DISREGARDING ALL FACTORS except the fantasy trendline yield and what the planting census was in March.

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

..........also, nevermind the increased risk to Corn production because half of it POLLINATES in the SAME week this summer.

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Faust100F
Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

elchepo- You needed to take the following courses in your studies to understand the report . . . Moron 102, Embicle 368, dumbass 101, drone 103, and bottom feeder 104, to get a better understanding and develop a greater appreciation for these wonderful comic books Larry, Moe, and Curley put out each month.  

 

You see everyone on this site, could not pass those courses because only "special people" meet the qualifications for taking them . . . you know people who would not get board riding around in a police car all day long or serving on a Co-op board of directors.  

 

These are the things you need to know and master before you undertake the task of interpreting the numbers put together by government officials, who have been ordered to reinstate the cheap food policy in this country, and return farmers to lifestyle that existed with $2 corn, and government subsidies.  Adios Amigo. John

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

Huh? There was a report today? Musta missed it. Was it important?  Wait let me guess, demand is down so carryover is large, if I have any old crop I better pay someone to take it.  I better forward sell all this corn that I haven`t even planted yet...yawn

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

BA,

you got the attached motive..... uh.........., umm........, i mean......., memo from USDA.

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

I can see the possibility of a "trendline"
Crop in the eastern corn belt, but west
Willl struggle. The north we know will
Switch to beans since its getting late.
Someone somewhere mentioned crop
Insurance date is near for corn in
Places, so that will be an impact.
Yes, there will be a crop, someone will
Have a bumper yeild, some will
Not be worth driving the combine out
Of the building.....but I can't say a bumper
As they said.
On the wheat....spring wht not going in
Well, here in the plains cold and dry wx
Has taken its toll. The wht tour showed
That.....BUT the two local coops say
Their scouts see no damage, and pushing
Fungicide application!
One is bringing in a special plane another
A helicopter! !!! $22 for the fungicide $10
To put on....oh by the way....they are saying
To use the new fungi....citing how other
Chemicals in the past has lost resistance..
Very wise way to state that....to my knowage
there has not been any resistance been
shown in wht yet.
As I think back, I don't think the crash
Will be as bad. (Yes things are pointing
In that direction) as it was then.
First fewer farmers now than then, smaller
Farms then, not the capital. But then again
We say the spread sheets are stronger..
But if we mark down asset value by
50% and crop values by the same amount
Could get ugly.
Look at STAMP.

At least back then usda wasn't crazy with
there numbers, and back then the
Computers had a green screen, 64k memory
We had floppy drives....and I was in awe when
I saw my first 10 Meg hard drive.

As a movie in the 70's, with spensor Tracy.....
Its a mad mad mad world .....holds
true today

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

Here is how the head Fred at the local grain terminal (not the coop) started the conversation with me this morning @11;15am.

 

"Well your Obama administration did it to you again".

 

Had a more in depth face to face with him this afternoon and I got the very definite impression he is not sold on all the #'s thrown around the last few years.

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Blacksandfarmer
Veteran Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

IMO, all these phony numbers that keep getting thrown around early in the planting season are why we have been seeing such high fall grain prices. USDA keeps putting up yield and acreage numbers that 80% of the time are not achievable. Unless we have a great weather year the market will have no place to go but up. I believe the report showed an achievable national average corn yield but the acreage estimate is still way too high.

elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

Got done watching market to market a bit
Ago. Virgil from phi was on, I usually
Respect his opinion. Tonight I really
Didn't understand. Plenty of wheat world
Wide? I thought I herd the crops were
Short due to lack of rain in aussieland
And the former Soviet union..,...we were
Told we should have sold already. ????

Corn, sounds like store and things should
Look much better NEXT year..,..


Doesn't anyone have the guts to tell
The truth. ???
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