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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

How much corn did you guys buy today?

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

NONE

 

Got some to sell though

 

Sold the calves/yearlings today.  Still have some ear corn, any buyers?

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

I'll just say this gentlemen--------follow the $$$ - strong hands. they will foretell of future price direction.

 

the only analogue-like year I saw on NASS as far as Corn plant progress was 1995 - still ahead of where we stand today......that was a low prod yr.-- coincidence?  I don't remember summer weather that yr. so i can't say for certain.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

 1995 had some extremely warm night-time temps during pollination/grain fill. I remember because my wife and daughter were at girl scout camp had the low one night was 87. Highs weren't over a 100, it just didn't cool down. Only lasted a few weeks so the trade ignored it and the USDA reports were way optomistic on yield as they hadn't learned what heat does too corn yields at that time.

 

I remember the July 95 USDA report well. We were installing a new septic system for the folks. Also, was long alot of corn for feed needs and had none sold. The USDA report came out and the market was down hard the first 30 minutes. Dad's response was simple, Buy MORE. His reasoning has always been - "USDA prints history and estimates - the market trades the future of what ifs".

Held the longs, bought some more, and had a great fall despite much poorer yields than last year. Of course, our production system is vastly superior to 1995, as are the genetics.

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

There are problems in Aussie land and Ukraine and Russia but the outcome is still in doubt. At least as to the severity.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

Thanks time ---------- great entry,  I really enjoy the "nutshell" reminders that folks with a lot of experience use to "rudder" the mental ship.  The thoughts that keep us from running with the herd.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

1995 AND 1996 prevented planted all corn acres here. TOO WET

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iowa john
Contributor

Re: please explain to me the usda report

i

 I haven't been on here for ages as I read so much (chatter) that doesn't really always add up to my thinking,for what it's worth.

  As to the U.S.D.A. report, has it ever made any commom sense? The speculaters control it as they do most of the marketing, some to supply and demand. They want to make us beleive a bumper crop is in the makeing due largely  to the moisture as of now. If they can get ample supply on hand then late july or august hot dry weather persist's prices should jump. Of course they will be able to jump for joy. How can they see a record crop when 60% of the corn is still in farmers shed"s and closer to 100% of the bean's are setting beside the corn seed. The west's wheat crop has suffered a lot also so go figure. Hope I don't sound tooooooo negative.                  

 

 

                             Grampa N.

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