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sw363535
Honored Advisor

prices low or high......

How about those high grain prices of 2012 and 2013--------the U.S. Department of Energy shows inflation-adjusted corn and soybean prices (in constant 2007 dollars) between 1886 and 2012.

 

 (this chart was done in 2013 when grain prices were high)

 

The DOE makes the following statement: "This chart shows that, when corrected for inflation, both corn and soy prices are near all-time lows."  -- unless you adjust your historical price data for inflation, any resulting year-to-year comparisons are effectively meaningless.   info from 

 

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2013/07/climate_change_costs_are_not_hitting_the_plate.html

 

For those who think marketing is not about cost of production or inflation.....

 

If you don't think expenses affect supply look at wheat acres changes this year............

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/graphics/wwacm.pdf

 

regardless of demand if the price remains low enough it will happen in corn as well.....especially if beans run a little to present alternative.... 



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9 Replies
elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: prices low or high......

sw i don't know if i follow you or not.  on the wheat, it might have been a combination of cost of inputs, and the projected income, which is

the function of price and input cost.

 

if things are right, wheat does't cost alot to put in the ground and have a fair crop conpaired to beans, and heaven forbid corn.

 

 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: prices low or high......

Interesting SW, I recall during the hay day of 2012, $8 corn and such.  The egg section in the supermarket had signs up "we can`t help these eggs goin` up, it`s feed and ethanol prices!"  movie theaters blamed their concession stand  price increases on $8 corn, but in all of that we never got close to "parity" prices.

 

Corn: $12.00/bu.
Soybeans: $28.90/bu.
Wheat: $18.30/bu.
Beef cattle: $292.00/cwt.
Hogs: $160.00/cwt.
Milk: $52.10/cwt.  

 

The thing is there is still relatively alot of us out here, a producing our brains out to individually succeed, while those we buy from either still have a working cartel or aren`t stupid and if we aren`t buying their $200,000 tractors, they shut down the factory until we start buying again.

 

* I have a feeling that this is somehow "Trump`s fault"  😉

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: prices low or high......

Two big problems have arisen.....

 

1 elcheapo............ costs to put in a crop are so high that even wheat is in trouble.    You can't put in a crop cheap like before.... even wheat.

2  BA ----------- technology has replaced us.... it doesnt matter if a few of us quit.  We each can produce more anyway.

 

 

I don't think demand or overproduction are the problem........ maybe it is inflation........ otherwise we live pretty good on $3 corn and $ 3.75 wheat.

 

Maybe trump is going after the right things first..... Maybe we're no different than any other segment of the economy......regulation has driven inflation in every industry govt demands cost money........ even green energy is more costly to produce...... 

 

There is just a lot of us still here BA cause we can't leave...                   

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JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Re: prices low or high......

The world is consuming more but the world is producing more.  Teh whole world can grow wheat.  SA grows more soybeans than anyone else and is getting better at growing corn.

 

Low cost producer means beating the expenses of the Ukraine, Argentina and Kurgestan.  They work pretty cheap.

 

Do we need $200,000 tractors?  Yes, if we want to let technology do our work, and as we get older we do want technology to do our work.

 

We have met the enemy and he is us.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: prices low or high......

Jim, you mean the enemy isn`t "Trump"?  Smiley Very Happy

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: prices low or high......

...I was so hoping we could pin all our 1st world problems from the past 3 years on just one guy, that`d make things so much simpler.  🙂

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: prices low or high......

BA, It's still Bush's fault, right?

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: prices low or high......

And there is that fake news......... 

 

It is not cost per tractor that makes a difference.  It is cost per bushel.

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JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Re: prices low or high......

Cost per bushel?  God forbid we'd ever change to metric tons.  Then we'd know what we really do compared to the rest of the world and might not like it.  Let's keep bushels.  And inches.  

 

(Actually, I find it much easier to figure acres as so many chains per furlong, but then who counts acres any more?  it's hectares, whatever the heck that is.)  🙂

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