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Honored Advisor

"Don`t sell a quiet market..

or kick a sleeping dog, they`ll both bite you"- Sue Martin

Market to Market

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sLdw7vGdWg

12 Replies
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Honored Advisor

Re: "Don`t sell a quiet market..

A dead market...

Or a rattlesnake market laying as low as it can to shed its skin.

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Honored Advisor

Re: "Don`t sell a quiet market..

Real farmers are hard at work trying to have a crop of some kind.  The market is so far south of the tracks no one is shopping there.  It doesn't need a mask, no breath or cough can be detected.

 

Fake farmers have moved on to the china virus betting wheel.

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Advisor

Re: "Don`t sell a quiet market..

not sure how valid that theory is.....many times the market takes a pause at the top for a couple of weeks giving you the chance to take some nice profits. Last June the corn market gave us about $4.50 here for nearly two weeks, and then proceeded to start the long march down. 

Wish I had been wise like the other poster was and could be angry now at getting shut out of the government aid programs. I admit, with so much crop unplanted, and all the market gurus predicting $5 to $6 corn, I thought waiting was prudent.  I gambled, and lost.

Back in the fall of 2012, the market sat on $8 corn for a spell, too, and I was lucky....I mean wise...enough to sell everything I could. 

Honestly, it is hard to pick out the times I have been lucky vs. wise. Guess if I had a marketing service to sell I would be wise all the time, right?

One thing I think we all agree on....selling at these prices isn't wise. I will keep everything filled to the rafters, store as much crop as I can, utilize loan programs, aid programs, etc to try to buy time until market forces come back into equilibrium. Maybe $2.75 is the new normal...if that is the case, get ready for $3000 to $4000 prime land sales too.

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Veteran Advisor

Sue is right.


@BA Deere wrote:

or kick a sleeping dog, they`ll both bite you"- Sue Martin

Market to Market

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sLdw7vGdWg


Bout that too. 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: China virus, heh......

Like it or not, the thing that will probably make the difference between $2 corn and $ 4 corn is an effective vaccine, particularly given the way the market responded to Moderna's news the other day.  The initial response was pretty positive until the next day when traders began to think about just what Moderna's was and decided it really wasn't all that positive in the first place.

  Everybody understands that until there is a vaccine, we will see continual outbreaks, hotspots, and even second & third waves.  Next fall & winter could be real "hell". This means that a sizable fraction of people will be very reticent to circulate much matter how much is "open" or how loud certain politicians bark.

  The thing is, 4 of the 8 furthest along vaccine candidates happen to be Chinese so I wouldn't be too sure the US will be first in line for it.

   

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Advisor

Re: "Don`t sell a quiet market..

It wasn’t luck.  It was smart chart reading and sticking to a marketplace plan.  I don’t listen to market gurus because they don’t know what they think they know.  There biggest business is hooking farmers and keeping fees coming in.  There are very good analysists out there I respect but they are few and far between.  I took the risk and I should reap the rewards.  Keeping me from a government program because I was not a straw sucking, bib overalls wearing golly gee farmers isn’t just unfair it is unamerican.  I get blocked from one chat room for being good at marketing (centuryfarm) not because I did anything wrong but because other farmers screwed up and are jealous.  End of rant.

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Honored Advisor

Re: "Don`t sell a quiet market..

What I think is meant "selling a quiet market is kicking a sleeping dog" is a market naturally wants to go lower and if it doesn`t, there`s something going on behind the scenes that isn`t public information yet.   Take this market "+3 billion bushel carryover, record planting rate, 70% good to excellent, uncertainty abound" ...and it didn`t break through $3.  Why would anyone buy corn and beans enough to hold it above $3?..."farmers holding tight"?   That`s the only non-bearish fundamental keeping it sinking like a stone.

What can you buy $3 corn and use it to make money?  Ethanol, livestock maybe in the future?   Sue Talks about China and other countries possibly ending "just in time inventory" and going back to a grain reseve like in the 80`s.  The Soviets had bunkers the size of football stadiums full of grain storage.  I tell ya what, if you can buy a commodity below cost of production, that is the time to fill your reserve.

All these countries we hear about like Brazil, lowering their currency to export grain, isn`t that going to catch up to them sooner or later?  Labor is cheap there, US seed & chemical companies give them sweetheart deals.  Land is supposedly cheap there, but you have to clear it, spend the holy grail on lime and fertilizer.  I don`t know how many of you`ve ever cleared a 5 acre building site old buildings, rocks trees, ect but it`s expensive and a pain in the rear, leveling and planting over stumps and limbs and saplings that refuse to die.  Yet we`re expected to believe that fires in Brazil cleared the forest and it`s ready to plant double crop 70 bushel beans!  No I`m not buying it, green logs and stumps don`t completely disappear in a fire. 

I think farmers around the world have many of the same economic challenges that we have, it`s just our media portrays them as super studs. If a farmer in this country needs $60,000 for living expense and his hired men get $22/hr, perhaps the Brazilian farmer lives on $15,000/yr and his hired help gets $2/hr...I don`t know but probably a lot less than their US counterparts.

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Honored Advisor

Re: "Don`t sell a quiet market..

Vince, I think they booted you at AgTalk because you stirred the pot, you probably rubbed the farmer/moderators wrong too.  It doesn`t take much to set them off, there was one guy peddling his oil products and one with snake oil fertilizer and Senior Citizen that was a market expert who built his platform there and started a advisory service for a fee of course.    Everybody over there wants to be the next "Plowboy"  Smiley Happy

But the CFAP isn`t going to bail anyone out...it`s only May, crop is barely out of the ground, we are a long way from the trophy stage.

But making money being a bear is twice as hard, I`ll give to that, it was probably a bear that started the saying "the market can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent".   Like in The Big Short movie there`s a lot of margin call checks to write sometimes.

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Advisor

Re: "Don`t sell a quiet market..

I have a certain way I communicate to others and it has suited me well during my life and in others ways people get offended at my humor.  Fact is I have learned many marketing tricks that if they would listen and put away their pride would suit them well.  The saying is the top ten percent make money in commodities for a reason and the remaining 90 percent get faded.