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Veteran Advisor

"Fact is . . ."

So, was reading along the report info and stories, taking it in stride as just another @#$%^ USDA report, then this statement appears, "Let the arguing begin about how the USDA numbers are wrong.  Fact is, it doesn’t matter. It’s what the numbers are now."  No matter whether that might be true in the view of some, it still burns me every time I see it.

 

I can agree with this statement -- "Right or wrong, the USDA numbers are what they are." -- Yet that is not what was said. 

 

Fact is, it DOES matter.  How many "traders" are trading the USDA numbers as "fact", when they are simply estimates and/or forecasts, (Jim might need to remind us of the correct terminology).  Unless the local elevator does some basis majic, the local cash price just took a major nosedive based on what USDA is thinking could maybe happen this fall, as though it's already in the bin -- now likely no more opportunities for pricing anything at a decent level (old or new crop) until the real facts are known, good or bad, and maybe not until January 2016.  How much harm would it do for USDA to actually err on the side of the producer once in a while.  How can USDA or NASS say their information does not impact market movements (statistical significance) when we witness report reactions like today.  How well do historical August estimates correlate with final production reports in January.

 

I'm thinking that what really should not matter is the August report we've just seen, this year, and any August report.  It's too early for meaningful new crop estimates, just get rid of the August estimates.  Or, like I've said before, just get rid of the estimates altogether, stick to only the facts, and let everyone draw their own conclusions.

 

My opinions are just my own opinions, haven't changed much on this subject over the years, and they are the same whether this report had been massively bullish or bearish.  Yet, obviously, the overly bearish surprises bother me the most.

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7 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: "Fact is . . ."

As long as there`s at least a "comfortable" caryover, USDA can get away with fudging the numbers on the high side.  So, there will be some bushels stolen above the cushion and if the narrative can be extended until March when they start coming with their over trend yield projections while there`s still frost in the ground and the seed isn`t yet delivered.  We`re just a bunch of hamsters running in a wheel never getting more than a sniff of the carrot.

 

Pretty good gig they got going and the only thing that occasionally messes it up for them is a unforseen drought.  This is probably why the gurus that are perma bears do so well alot of the time, lately. 

Advisor

Re: "Fact is . . ."

Remember this report is from the same outfit that says there is no inflation  (tee hee) and 18 trillion in debt is no problem

Senior Contributor

Re: "Fact is . . ."

My favorite quote of the day is from Sal Giliberti: "However todays price lows are approaching cost of production levels in the US by many anylists estimates, espesilly in corn."    With almost no land cost I guess could agree with that statement.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: "Fact is . . ."

You are absolutely right WCMO these are the numbers now right wrong or indiferent this what we have live with. Personally I find it strange all the private guys were a lot lower. I will say one thing I have been surprised on my own field yields through the years when we have dealt with drought/too much water. Maybe the USDA is not to far off. The combine will tell.

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Advisor

Re: "Fact is . . ."

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Highlighted
Advisor

Re: "Fact is . . ."

wcmo, almost worse than (whAt are considered) inaccurate estimates are the cases where they come out and say we have to "re-survey" after they release an estimate.

 

I haven't been south but maybe all talk from june and july in missouri ,illinois, indiana, and into ohio was bogus and you boys are just messin' with us. I doubt it but remember the illinois guy that said his crop was "toast"?

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Senior Contributor

Re: "Fact is . . ."

A good friend in ohio sez the wheat there was junk from disese. Corn and beans very late with lots of pp and drowned out areas! Friend in missouri has 50% of bean acres not seeded and corn has drown out spots and tge rest is yellow. Wheat in washington state was lits smaller from lack of rain....and in regina saskatchewan very dry early so yield is down on wheat and canola inwestern canada so.... Take it for what its worth
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