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"Katie bar the door."

The grain bin door that is.  The weather forecasts is for some of the hottest temperatures we have had in 6 years.  After the heat this week the weathermen call for this,  "All long range models then build another hot airmass back into the state for early next week."

And July is not here yet.  Bu. will most likely fall fast for the next 10 days or longer.  We are at 1.42"  of rain for June.  About 1/3 of normal.  Central IA

Take care and drink lots of water.


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4 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: "Katie bar the door."

 "All long range models then build another hot airmass back into the state for early next week."


My corn is on the small side and down here in south Podunk Country, we are always just 10 days away from a drought ...This is day 2


Maybe a trip to Iceland would cool us off? Surely the powers that be here on Ag.Com could arrange an all expenses pd trip for us to someplace like that for July? Do a crop tour or corn suitability study???????? Park our butt on a glacier and think warm thoughts?


IT was 113 degrees out in Hill City, Kansas yesterday and they are in for a repeat performance today. AAAAAAUUUUUHHHH.



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Honored Advisor

Re: "Katie bar the door."

Early Grain Outlook, 6-25-12
Effective Date: 6/25/2012
by Duane Lowry
Monday, June 25, 2012

*At 5:03 am> Grain/Soy Snapshots: Corn= 24 1/2 higher
, Wheat= 23 1/2 higher, Soybeans= 47 1/4 higher.

Day Session Expectations vs Night Session Tone:
Dec Corn: Support= $5.75, Resistance= $5.94
*The next leg up has begun. Emotions should be quickly escalating this week, suggesting more upside potential. Why not trade limit-up today?
Nov Soybeans: Support= $14.15-20, Resistance= $14.45
*New highs overnight. Here too, why not keep pushing up?
Sep Wheat: Support= $7.00, Resistance= $7.30-40
*Short-covering energy will continue.

Outside Market Influences:
At 5:02 am> Price Snapshots: Crude was down $0.65, Gold was up $2.40, Dow Index was down 87 and the US $ was up 29.
*Consolidation may be the theme of the week until the Supreme Court weighs in on the political landscape outlook for the next several months.

Weather offers a warmer/drier theme and doesn't even have much of a carrot left on the stick. Southern Midwest locations will experience some very hot temperatures this week. This will now get very serious. We have too many acres that have had too little precip for too long and now have discouraging opportunities in the two-week outlook. Visible crop stress will expand this week and quickly escalate rhetoric and fears. People will be forced to alter/escalate their perceptions of the weather/crop/fundamental landscapes.

Wheat is unleashing short-covering energy amid escalating row-crop emotions. Determine what you believe to be a reasonable upside limitation for wheat and then expect that level to be exceeded. A major selling opportunity will be presented through this process, but be patient.

Corn has begun its next up leg. We have limited moisture opportunities during the next two weeks and temperatures will be escalating to very troubling levels, especially in southern areas of the Midwest. Expect visible crop stress to quickly grab producer attentions and expect emotions and rhetoric to quickly expand and enflame this week. Crop ratings are expected to decline this afternoon and we are virtually certain of additional declines during the next couple of weeks. This will quickly lead the historical number-crunchers to throw out all advantages from the exceptional start to the 2012 growing season and lead to discussions of "just how bad could this get" type of discussions. We will experience very warm/dry conditions for some pollinating corn during the next two weeks. Remember, the trade has been skeptical of weather fears and we still have the most emotional phase of this rally yet to unfold. There is clearly a lack of conviction towards Friday's USDA acreage reports, but right now nobody cares about that, as everyone is trying to navigate weather forecasts.

Soybeans have pushed through the April highs and this isn't likely to be a false breakout. With weather fears expanding amid a foundational base that has always been perceived as one that can't gracefully stomach a US production shortfall, traders have no choice now but to respect the chance that US yields will underperform what is necessary. This will lead to perceptions the market must seek to expand South American acreage and prepare users for a price discovery process that will lead to rationing. $15 has now become only a conservative upside price target for November soybeans.

In summary, weather fears will escalate as the carrot-on-the-stick appears to be getting smaller and smaller. Rising temps will certainly and quickly elevate emotional rhetoric as crop conditions visibly decline in a manner this week that will create extreme discomfort for those directly impacted. We seem poised to expand upward price movement much of this week, as end-of-the-month antics and pre-report positioning help to fuel the directional movement established by weather fundamentals.

Barge Values
: June= +74 N
CN: Support= 5.95, Resistance= 6.50
CZ: Support= 5.60-65, Resistance= 6.10-15

**PROFILE: July Corn>. Dec Corn> The next up leg is underway.

Barge Values: June= +62 N
SN: Support= 14.50, Resistance= 15.10
SX: Support= 14.00, Resistance= 14.70-85
SMN: Support= 425, Resistance= 465
BON: Support= 50.50, Resistance= 53.00

**PROFILE: July Soybeans>. Nov Soybeans> Upside breakout has developed, violating the April highs. IN SUMMARY, more upside potential exists.

Barge SRW Values: June= +28 N
WU: Support= 6.80, Resistance= 7.30-50

**PROFILE: Chicago September Wheat> I am not sure what we are dealing with here, but the mistake is probably to underestimate upside potential. We might have one of those situations where, short-term, prices exceed reasonable parameters and create a great selling opportunity. However, sellers may need to be very patient and wait for existing shorts to be run over.
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Veteran Contributor

Re: "Katie bar the door."

Dodge Co. Wi.  .1 in rain in last 50 days. Corn and beans look OK at sunrise, but after the heat coming this wk, I expect things to be blue and curled tight. I thought 88 was a 50 yr drought. Turns out it was only a 25. No hurry to sell anymore either.

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Re: "Katie bar the door."

Sure wish could have got an 1.42'' in June.  We have only had 0.25'' in June and 2.50" since April 15.

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