"Patience Grasshopper"........

[p-oed Farmer]

We all need to keep in mind that for this corn crop to ave 163.5 that the USDA is factoring into there S and D's .... We need to have most of the country have pretty good crops with pretty good timely rains..... IMO..... Even if we get 163 or higher..... Demand is going to eat it up..... As the old movie quote goes "Patience Grasshopper"......... Now is not the time to be selling anything that has a home this fall...... I feel that one has to retain ownership this fall of as much as possible........As there is going to be a HUGE acre battle next year as corn will need more acres..... Cotton will need more acres..... Wheat is now trying to buy acres for next year...... Soybeans are still crowding $10.00 for next year...... The world is only one weather problem from big problems.....FWIW......  p-oed

[Artifice]

There is not much leeway.

a 168 could happen as well. .

[jec22]

So how long should one stay short until the trend reverses?

Just for fun.  People like to refer to crop ratings.  2003 soybeans ratings on 7/28/03

2/7/25/50/16     final yield   33.6b/a

ratings on 7/26/10

3/7/23/49/18     final yield?????

figures don't lie, but liars figure.

[idalivered]

2003 was the first year that we really had an aphid outbreak in most of iowa. most of my heighbors did not spray. I only sprayed about half. what a screwed up mess that turned out to be! wish we had listened to the wisconsin and se minnsota guys that had them previously.