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Senior Advisor

"the market" treats everyone the same....OJ an Lumber

sometimes we get cought up in our own little world............


a few days ago, I pondered the idea of going long in OJ and the lumber market, due to the hurricanes.....


sounds logical to me....big bad storm that will have high winds and etc, what would that do to oranges

and the trees they grow on.


then everyone getting ready for the storm, buying osb for their windows.....then with all the damage there

would be a lot of rebuilding.....thusly demand for lumber, thusly higher prices ((tweety has cut back

imports of lumber from Canada))


but I see today, OJ is down 3 to 4 %......I think there are also oranges might also be raised in southern tx.


lumber is down $10.00


less than 24 hours since Irma makes landfall........the traders already know that the oranges were not hurt

and no need to rebuild.


sound familiar ???????


I did get some info on the oranges, a lot of fruit on the ground, which I understand can't be salvaged......wouldn't you

take that as a loss of production ???


I wonder if they have USDA guesser's or is there something similar to pro-farmer that makes a tour on the crop ?


also talk that a lot of cotton in the south could be hurt by two what happens.......cotton goes down !!!


yep, situation normal.......all #$% up !!!

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11 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: "the market" treats everyone the same....OJ an Lumber

To prequalify what I'm about to say, I know I know, if your house floods or gets blown away, its suffering and terrible and a disaster. However in the scheme of things, it may not be as bad overall as it gets hyped.

See, I don't think traders get their news and weather from "CNN" and other places whose agenda isn't to give news but rather push a global warming narrative. See when they do that, information is skewed towards their beliefs, not towards facts.

I guess the short answer is once again Rush is right.
Senior Advisor

Re: "the market" treats everyone the same....OJ an Lumber

That comment does not deserve a response.  I think all of us has seen the damage, heard the reports, even tweety bird has commented

how bad it is.......but your response......I think all the regulars and those that just scan thru things can draw their own judgement

from your response.


as the ole saying goes, a money doesn't have to make a monkey out of himself....he already is one.


tell you what BA.....I've got some friends down in the Keys.....go down there and tell them it wasn't as bad as rush said......warning,

medical care is very difficult down there right now.



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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: "the market" treats everyone the same....OJ an Lumber


Veteran Advisor

Re: "the market" treats everyone the same....OJ an Lumber

"But the rumor,sell the fact. The time to buy was a week or two ago. I know I know. Hindsight is 20-20 they say
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Senior Advisor

Re: "the market" treats everyone the same....OJ an Lumber

If I say to do it (go long heating oil, natural gas), we will have a record warm winter, and santa will be wearing speedo's  and sporting

sun glasses when he goes around a few weeks before Christmas to all the towns to talk to all the girls and boys to see what they

want for Christmas.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: "the market" treats everyone the same....OJ an Lumber

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Senior Advisor

Re: "the market" treats everyone the same....OJ an Lumber

OK elcheapo, let me get this straight. Millions of people have just lost 10s of billions in storm damage and you are upset the price of limber has gone down thus denying you a chance at making a profit from their misfortune even though that will allow for them to rebuild their lives at a cheaper cost.

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Honored Advisor

Re: "the market" treats everyone the same....OJ an Lumber

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Senior Advisor

Thank you BA

well gods work never ceases to amaze me.  

BA that view you listed, on my youtube, had some interesting videos fallowing......which I want to discuss.


I know there are a lot of hard working people on here, both posters and people just some posters on here

work harder than others..........but we're not going to go there.


I also know, that agriculture is not paying the best right now, and despite the agmedia, and other media agriculture is not good.

I think we all could use some extra change.


The views that were next to BA post, was about doing "urban farming", and then more special, using a shipping container

to grow "greens in"..if it is in a shipping container, could be be done about anywhere...the biggest challenge would be to find

a market.....also, they use a bike to deliver their want a picture of SW and BA peddling around

on their bikes making deliveries.....also would like a photo too of 3020 doing the same !!!

Then there is a video on auqapondics and hydroponics.....which is an option......the last is mushroom production, and in

one instance using WHEAT STRAW as the substrate.

I like the last video using wheat straw........if a long haired hippie can do it.......then BA shouldn't have a problem.


imagine, iowa corn feed beef, with microgreens and lettace salad and mushrooms broiled in butter on top of that steak....

all produced in Iowa....or in Kansas....or where ever.


I'd suggest everyone view these..yes it will take some time to watch, but just watch with an open mind, maybe this is something

you can do, which would be "low cost".....a lot cheaper than than couple of year old tractor your looking at.....yes it is work,

and yes might take some work to establish a market.........but you fellows are used to hard work.....and a uphill battle.......after all,

look at the commodity markets !!!

I don't know if it will work for everyone, but for some out there, this just could be a fit.  

I know agriculture is hard, the physical work, and the psychological impact of weather, low prices, input costs, etc......

and I want to see you to have a better life, maybe for some, it might be a viable option.  You might have extra money to 

keep the other half happy, able to upgrade the house, or vehicle, or grow a fund for the kids college fund, or your

own 501k.

so just business you need to look at all options.......for a while I worked with people to help them thru the

hard times, we would look at all their assets, and things they didn't consider assets, were indeed good ones, many times

made a huge different....also you need to look at see if their profitable, etc...etc........

maybe....this might be just the nitche some were looking for.....good luck.......


and BA........I want that picture in a 8x10 glossy.

(this one is microgreens grown in a shipping container)


(hippie growing mushrooms with straw)



and as spock would long and prosper 



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