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08-01-2018 02:22 PM - edited 08-01-2018 05:06 PM
so do something" invariably hits my contrarian nerve and sends me running for the hills.
They always can, like when the boulder falls on Wile E. at the bottom of the cliff.
That was always kind of perplexing to me coming from farmers who, best I can tell, had been treated very generously by the gubmint over the preceding decade or more. But most were bound and determined to ignore the cautions from the adults in the room, i.e., the professionals who we hire to run our commodity organizations.
But anyway, here's how I think we ##### the big pooch. The US was always going to lose the "exorbitant privilege" of printing the world's reserve currency someday and folks of many stripes- deficit hawks, goldbugs, etc.- have predicted it was imminent forever.
But we're now in the process of distancing ourselves from all of our historic multi-lateral commitments- both financial and geopolitical. What we appear to be doing is to move to a bilateral protection racket where we use our (ever bigger and more expensive) military to extract bilateral concessions from everybody. That would be entirely consistent with the worldview of the mafiosi we've put in charge (nice country ya got there, it'd be a shame if something was to happen to it).
Problem is that it won't work and all it will do is unite everybody against us as we're already seeing with the surge in bi and multi-lateral trade deals that exclude us. And in particular, we'll lose control of all of the post-war multi-lateral world financial institutions that have kept us on top.
Initial result might even, on first blush, seem positive for "agriculture" since the USD would likely depreciate sharply. And I'd be foolish to predict exactly how it would turn out other than to suspect, more than likely, bad for most of us.
Alarmists who felt the need to bring this nigh would never accept the first bit of blame if it were to come to pass anyway. "But things were so desperate, what were we to do?"
08-01-2018 04:16 PM
then you can call it Over.
if they never did show...your an excercise in Stupid that don't know the diff from a Sandhills crane ( the rib eye from the sky ) and a buzzard.
08-01-2018 05:32 PM
That stuff will probably come to pass during the epic political crisis on tap between the upcoming election and the next one.
In the meanwhile I expect the DX to firm up a bit into year end, and the commodity complex to lose another 10-15% as measured by the CRB.
I think we'll more than likely see some very violent moves in financial and commodity markets in the 24 months that follow.
Anyone can, and will, blame it on the other folks.