re-entering stock market- when, where, how?

[sdholloway56]

Sincerely seeking any ideas.

I said a month ago that I thought you'd be able to buy the SP on half price sale, but didn't see that possibly happening so quickly. Deer in the headlights.

A bit above the 1700 half price level, there's an range of action in the 1800-2000 area.

I'm thinking maybe do 20% around 2000 and scaling in below, or above if that's how it plays.

Anyway, the long term horizon for possible good returns from there looks good. There was never a possibility from 3400- it was just a matter of how much more fat they could put on the goose before slaughter.

I'm toying with the idea of using a 2X leveraged ETF as the initial vehicle but I'm giving further considerations to that.

[rickgthf]

Question: When, Where, and How"?

Answer: "Not yet, Not here, and Very carefully".

  No, Seriously, watch the new infections, hospitalizations and deaths.  When the rate of new infections begins level off and decline, you'll know the worst is behind us.  Unless we get a 1918 scenario with a second round of infections.

And don't expect the market to ever get back to anywhere near 29,000 for a long time.  That 29,000 was due to politics, and unreasonable expectations. 

[sdholloway56]

Absolutely agree with your last statement. But from somewhere down here there will be a positive long term return horizon.

There was none at 29k.

[wrightcattle]

Spring of 2021.

Be at the 14k to 15k Dow level then... A new different POTUS then etc. 

Just buy the old conservative long term proven dividend stuff.,, ge,  coca cola,  proctor and gamble,  Hartford ins , cat,  jd, etc etc alphabet,  

[sdholloway56]

I would observe that the old 60/40 stock/bond portfolio is probably somewhere near the end of usefulness.

I wouldn't rule out that even if central banks won't take rates to negative the market might for some brief period of time if there's a flight to safety panic. But somewhere the jig is up?

A disciplined 60/40 with quarterly rebalncing has served very well for 20 years- through the ups and downs.

[jennys_mn]

Our government was far too late in getting things shut down.  It all needs to be shut down - now.   Nothing, no one is safe.   Health care on the coasts are already failing - many are going to die before this is done.  This event with the virus isn’t over - it’s just begun.

Trump has surrounded himself with incompetence - people were put into positions that they never had a right to be in.  His lies have made the whole of the situation just that much worse.   Those that felt that isolating the US from the world was a great idea, now have to grapple with the fact that because of Trump, we are alone - and get to face the challenge of this nightmare before us alone.

it is a nightmare scenario that is unfolding as I type this.  We haven’t yet seen the panic that is yet to come.  Our government was not on top of this - everything coming from Trump’s mouth, was and continues to be a lie.  In an order to protect his precious stock market, he has endangered the lives of many.  There is no “miracle cure” like he keeps toughing - there will not be one for quite a while.

That is the real scenario that we are living.  The one that our government is trying to protect us from.  Given that context, where is the bottom going to be?  

Americans have been told forever, “Just stay in - no one has ever lost money in the stock market if you just stay in.”  The stock market needs to be shut down.  Millions of American’s are about to lose their life savings, because they have it invested in something that really was never intended to put life savings into.  Add that to the the deaths that are going to start piling up, and what do you think is going to happen?  

Then on top of that, there is no certainty that getting this virus once, makes us safe as our bodies produce the antibodies to fight it.  There already has been one case, where reinfection has occurred.  

“But, if we get through the next few weeks, we’ll be fine!”  No - it’s not the next few weeks, or the next few months.  Until a vaccine is produced, those in the high risk category, and more, are at risk from this virus.  When will that be?  Next year some time - probably.  Until a vaccine is produced, or a drug developed to fight this, life will need to continue to be locked down.  And, frankly, we haven’t found a lot of really effective drugs for something big like this for a long time.

Flatten the curve - great - that way we don’t overwhelm health care.  IT’S TOO LATE!!!  It’s simply too late.  Our Supreme Leader and his group of merry men that were in it for a fun time, haven’t yet awoken to the seriousness of what we are facing here.  We don’t need to shut things down here - not in the Midwest - thus is a coastal big city problem.  Sure it is - we are just 10 days behind them.  

Do you get your mail, or a package from Amazon that was shipped yesterday, and you gleefully open it and say, “Not me - it’s a big city problem!”  You better think again.  This virus persists for days on paper.  Someone packaging it yesterday, who is unaware they have the virus - now have it to you.  That’s what we’re talking about here.  Many will die - some people using this site - will die.  

When you really think about this, realize that live as we knew it, has ended.  Big tax breaks given to business, probably can’t stave off the fact, that many of those businesses will go broke.  The promises made by this government of 5% gdp - will not be seen in my remaining lifetime.

So there we have it - there’s the truth - and it’s really, really ugly.  What Trump HAS insured, is that the above scenario will play out.  Many still think that this isn’t real - what Trump said just last week, don’t worry, be happy - he and his merry men have it all under control.  It’s too late.  Good luck everyone....

Oh - and where is it going to be safe to buy this stock market?  Who knows - none of the controls instituted have worked, and normally any one of them would’ve driven the stock market up a couple is thousand points.  I originally thought, a worse case scenario, would’ve been a low around 18000 on the DOW.  No more.   10, maybe 11,000 on the DOW.  All depends on when, and if we find an effective drug - or a vaccine - that actually works.

Thats the truth.  It’s ugly - but it’s the truth.

Jen

[sdholloway56]

I'm listening- particularly since you played last year's ups and downs brilliantly- a fact that I've reminded the trolls over at Forum about as they rewrite your history.

I'm starting to feel the same. Nobody knows, but Goldman now projects a 24% drop in Q2 GDP and we can assume that the government response will be inadequate to the task. At any rate I'm more willing to miss out than I am to take any losses by being too early. 

Should've bought long bonds when I pulled out of stocks but that seemed sort of a fools errand with rates below 2%. Oh well, the least of my worries.

It is going to be a different world that we emerge into- $5T or more further in debt, etc. And always possible that it just plain gets away from us given the degree of political dysfunction compounding it all.

But I'm an American and at some point I want to be like the prophet Jeremiah who bought a field near Jerusalem before the fal as an act of faithl- I want to reinvest in America. Doing it badly does nobody any good.

[sdholloway56]

As Adam Smith famously said, "young man, there is a great deal of ruin in a nation."

[sdholloway56]

The job of rebuilding the economy will fall to those who preserved capital.

[timetippingpt]

Thank goodness we could hear from Jenny to help calm everyone down. 🙂

I only study the SP.  From a timing perspective, the next 3 days should complete the collapse, probably 1850 can hold it. Long-term bottom for paper assets is likely around Jan 2023 with the SP @ 1000. That is just normal math with no "depression" although I have no idea how we will avoid one with folks like you all part of the mix.

btw, this will be an inflationary depression, forget what happened in the 1930's, completely irrelevant.