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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

recession

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast.html

Not official- half hasn't even happened yet. 

But the official definition of a recession is two successive quarters of negative economic growth.

I'd be surprised in Q2 actually comes in nearly as well a -8% but my opinion and $2 will get you a Grande at Starbucks.

As far as the official call, you can recall that back at the start of the GFC most all of the Very Serious People poured withering condescension upon anyone suggesting there was, or could be, a recession. Until NBER came out and said, oh, yeah, it started 3 quarters ago.

Worth remembering that growth was faltering before this, even if the stock market was making people watch the other hand.

 

22 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: recession

"they" have been predicting (hoping for) a recession since November, 9, 2016.  Comey, Clapper, Strok Stroke Smirk, Avenati....Paula Reid, Jake Tapper...

 

er, perhaps "this" is Obama`s fault?

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/dems-new-talking-point-on-the-trump-economy-obama-built-it/  

snip

The "expert" predictions of economic disaster should Donald Trump win the 2016 election did not occur. Under Trump, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq composite have reached historic highs while unemployment for blacks and Hispanics have hit historic lows. In the wake of Trump's undeniable economic success, what is the 2020 Democratic Party argument for why voters should back their candidate over Trump?

The morning after Trump's election, Paul Krugman, an economics professor and columnist for The New York Times, wrote: "Now comes the mother of all adverse effects -- and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work. Effective fiscal support for the Fed? Not a chance. In fact, you can bet that the Fed will lose its independence, and be bullied by cranks. So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened."

roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: recession

The “all hands on deck” approach to a push for MADE IN THE USA only products will pull the U.S. out of any recession. 

Sadly Congress will buck this every step of the way unless they can line their pockets. 

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: recession

Estimates vary widely from say 5-20% as far as the percent of GDP increase from trade. Krugs is, BTW, on the shorter end of that.

But here's the deal. On or around 2/23/20 the US had the greatest level of wealth and income it has ever had (as it also did on 11/7/16). Some 5-20% of that had accrued from trade. The problem was not the aggregate amount, it was how the gains have been distributed for the last 40 years.

Autarky may be a good thing in its own right. Or not.  But we will be less wealthy overall- ultimately it is a question of how you choose to distribute it.

Ever upward, and with less? Or for folks who have a place in a special line with a unique and lavish safety net, I suppose it doesn't matter.

Also, back to the baseline matter that "agriculture" is the most neoliberal, NWO of "industries". You better have a new plan.

0 Kudos
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: recession

Offshoring was most certainly a prime means of distributing wealth upwards.

I suppose we need to give corporations and the wealthy another tax break to get 'em to bring the jobs back?

Leaving aside the snark, I do think that tax breaks for US production vs. a general tax break (because they {won't} repatriate all that cash, increase capital investment etc.).

As much as you guys love being lied to it is a good thing you're not female or you'd be knocked up all the time.

0 Kudos
rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Congress line their pockets? You mean like ....

Congress line their pockets?  You mean like John Kelly, former Chief of Staff having investments in and  a seat on the board of directors of the private prison that held migrants?

  It's not just Congress by any means, who's got the monopoly on inside deals.

0 Kudos
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: recession

The Left wants free healthcare, free college, free retirement all the things of the "American right" to live like millionaires..and then open borders to extend the millionaire "right" to the entire North American continent.  How about instead of that wealth redistribution, we force (through tariffs) that the $12/hr convenience store clerk there are more US opportunities of "Living Wage" employment?

And we`ve been damned stupid with having the "lowest bidder" be our "just in time" supplier of needed goods.  Take the cherished "N 95  mask" prior to Covid-19 you couldn`t give the damned things away...now you can`t keep `em on the shelves.   The US manufacturer of those masks could do it for 10¢ per mask, China could do it for 2¢ per mask, so we screwed the US company over 8¢ in different price per mask.   Broke the US company and now the junk is imported from China.   Makes NO sense!

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/12/metro/medical-workers-share-concerns-about-masks-delivered-by...   

snip 

It was a rare moment of celebration in a season of misery: The New England Patriots team plane touching down at Logan Airport April 2 with a massive cargo of scarce respirator masks for front-line health care workers who were trying to save lives.

But like so much else in this global pandemic, the ensuing reality has proven to be more complex.

As well-intended and carefully executed as the covert mission to China had been, at least some and possibly many of the roughly one-million protective masks on the team plane were not the time-tested, industry-standard N95 masks that medical workers wear when treating coronavirus patients. Rather, they were a Chinese version known as a KN95 mask that some hospitals in Boston and beyond have so far declined to use and remain reluctant about today.

...

“It is not the gold standard,” said Maryanne Bombaugh, president of the Massachusetts Medical Society, in an interview. “We know the N95 masks. We know how well they work, and what they filter, and the safety profile around them.

"We know these [KN95] masks are different,” Bombaugh said.  

 

_______________________________

Don`t our healthcare workers on the frontlines everyday in the toxic soup deserve the GOLD STANDARD?    For an extra 8¢ per mask.

rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Did you notice the disclaimer?

They included this disclaimer with their report, "the model is based only on monthly data, no more frequently" and" the data for March will not be included until mid-April."  The negative 7.9% forecast was based on surprises in manufacturing and retail from Feb.  In other words, none of the more recent catastrophic data is included in the current Q2 number.

 We're not looking at a recession, we're looking at a Depression with a capital "D".

0 Kudos
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Did you notice the disclaimer?

I think we are in danger of having a Depression, but what can we expect with jobs of the burger flipper hires someone to do his laundry and they both spend $50 on tickets to go to watch millionaires play baseball?   The thing about the US economy is, we are the prettiest girl in the leper colony  global economically speaking.  All we have to do is print our way out, what`s the rest of the world going to do?   And then cancel the debt we owe China because they lied to the whole world about the seriousness of their Coronavirus. 

freedom1493
Veteran Advisor

Re: recession

"As much as you guys love being lied to.."

Pretty sure we're not the ones who believe cow farts cause the world to either (1) dry up and blow away, or (2) oceans to rise and flood whole continents.  Pick one and stick to it, could ya, 'cause you're making me seasick. 

Or support the politicos who want to, in essence, ban the very crops I grew for ethanol or to feed livestock because those same folks want to outlaw combustible engines or even hybrid engines and the consumption of real meat.

Snark aside, the world you knew is gone.  You may wanna lay in some plans for a whole new ballgame.

Btw....we can't get over 40 degrees in Temp more than 2 days in a row.  Have had snow/hail/sun/snow/sun all in the same day.  Got rain coming for next 5 out of 7 days.  We need more cow farts.